Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | TOW -120 JMU +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +9 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | JMU -2.5 (-6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.9 (+3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -2.2 (-6.8) | 147.1 (+5.9) | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -0.5 (-8.5) | 147.1 (+5.9) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -1.4 (-7.6) | 146.3 (+6.7) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -2.9 (-6.1) | 148.1 (+4.9) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 19, 2025 | JMU 81 – 75 TOW |
| Nov 17, 2024 | TOW 67 – 63 JMU |
| Feb 26, 2022 | TOW 95 – 59 JMU |
| Feb 24, 2022 | TOW 84 – 65 JMU |
| Jan 27, 2021 | JMU 78 – 63 TOW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-14 | 13-7 |
| Conference | 3-9 | 8-2 |
| Home | 4-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 0-6 | 3-3 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -6.8 (#274) | -1.5 (#190) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.36 (#272) | -0.89 (#240) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.78 (#268) | -1.34 (#251) |
| RPI | 0.430 (#260) | 0.456 (#224) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.3% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 32.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.7% | 29.3% |
Game Analysis
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