Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | JMU +210 TOW -260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +36 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | TOW -6.8 (-29.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.9 (+14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -8.1 (-27.9) | 141.6 (+12.4) | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -7.0 (-29.0) | 139.7 (+14.3) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -6.2 (-29.8) | 143.7 (+10.3) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -7.4 (-28.6) | 144.9 (+9.1) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 19, 2025 | JMU 81 – 75 TOW |
| Nov 17, 2024 | TOW 67 – 63 JMU |
| Feb 24, 2022 | TOW 84 – 65 JMU |
| Jan 27, 2021 | JMU 78 – 63 TOW |
| Jan 16, 2021 | JMU 81 – 72 TOW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JMU | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-14 | 25-9 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 15-3 |
| Home | 9-6 | 12-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 11-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 62.4 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#214) | 7.0 (#84) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#176) | 1.39 (#74) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#196) | 1.67 (#76) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#176) | 0.567 (#60) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JMU | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 36.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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