Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | TOW -135 JMU +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +4 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | TOW -6.9 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (-14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -3.1 (+0.9) | 142.0 (-12.0) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -4.5 (-0.5) | 143.2 (-13.2) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -3.1 (+0.9) | 138.6 (-8.6) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 19, 2025 | JMU 81 – 75 TOW |
| Feb 26, 2022 | TOW 95 – 59 JMU |
| Feb 24, 2022 | TOW 84 – 65 JMU |
| Jan 27, 2021 | JMU 78 – 63 TOW |
| Jan 16, 2021 | JMU 81 – 72 TOW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-1 | 13-2 |
| Away | 9-5 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#250) | -3.4 (#241) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.23 (#282) | -0.39 (#219) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.82 (#281) | -0.63 (#221) |
| RPI | 0.399 (#280) | 0.318 (#330) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.4% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 23.7% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 16.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.3% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 42.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 61.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 57.9% | 89.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 41.5% | 31.7% |
Game Analysis
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