Betting Lines
| Spread | UTM -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | UTM -380 WIU +290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTM +11 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | UTM -9.4 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (+12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTM -6.9 (+4.1) | 135.1 (+15.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTM -7.8 (+3.2) | 138.1 (+12.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTM -7.3 (+3.7) | 136.7 (+14.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTM -7.1 (+3.9) | 136.6 (+14.4) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | UTM 84 – 44 WIU |
| Jan 1, 2026 | UTM 67 – 60 WIU |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UTM 85 – 83 WIU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | UTM 62 – 59 WIU |
| Jan 12, 2024 | WIU 73 – 64 UTM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTM | WIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 6-14 |
| Home | 8-5 | 8-7 |
| Away | 5-12 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 73.3 |
| Massey | -7.6 (#287) | -13.8 (#351) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.76 (#322) | -2.51 (#344) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.18 (#317) | -3.61 (#355) |
| RPI | 0.424 (#315) | 0.377 (#351) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTM | WIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.9% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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