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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
17–2 on winners
spread MAE 9.6
19 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UT Martin
@
Alabama State
|
+9.0 | 141.8 | 79% | 93–103 | ✓ |
Marshall
@
Wright State
|
+9.2 | 147.8 | 80% | 79–88 | ✓ |
NJIT
@
Delaware State
|
+6.6 | 141.3 | 73% | 59–71 | ✓ |
Maine
@
Duquesne
|
-0.5 | 133.3 | 48% | 61–56 | ✓ |
Dartmouth
@
Notre Dame
|
+19.3 | 146.6 | 96% | 65–77 | ✓ |
Fairleigh Dickinson
@
Villanova
|
+27.0 | 159.8 | 99% | 72–86 | ✓ |
Bryant
@
St. John's
|
+20.2 | 164.4 | 97% | 77–99 | ✓ |
IU Indianapolis
@
Purdue Fort Wayne
|
+16.2 | 157.5 | 93% | 76–78 | ✓ |
Milwaukee
@
Green Bay
|
-2.2 | 160.9 | 42% | 88–67 | ✓ |
North Alabama
@
East Carolina
|
+3.5 | 143.3 | 63% | 74–67 | ✗ |
Eastern Kentucky
@
Pittsburgh
|
+18.5 | 151.8 | 95% | 56–96 | ✓ |
UTEP
@
Louisville
|
+12.4 | 140.5 | 87% | 74–77 | ✓ |
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
@
UL Monroe
|
+13.5 | 158.9 | 89% | 73–89 | ✓ |
Colgate
@
Kentucky
|
+34.5 | 156.4 | 100% | 67–78 | ✓ |
North Dakota
@
Utah Valley
|
+10.7 | 150.2 | 83% | 57–80 | ✓ |
SE Louisiana
@
Louisiana
|
-7.1 | 146.0 | 26% | 61–68 | ✗ |
Fresno State
@
BYU
|
+22.1 | 158.4 | 98% | 67–95 | ✓ |
California Baptist
@
San Diego State
|
+17.5 | 142.9 | 94% | 75–81 | ✓ |
South Dakota State
@
Nevada
|
+9.1 | 139.9 | 80% | 63–77 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.