Cause now I wanna be your dog. "I Wanna Be Your Dog" - Iggy and the Stooges
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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89–35 on winners spread MAE 9.5 124 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Wichita State @ Temple +2.7 151.7 60% 85–91 ✓
Iowa @ Wisconsin +5.5 164.5 69% 85–116 ✓
Stonehill @ Mercyhurst -1.8 133.0 44% 69–76 ✗
Le Moyne @ Long Island University +5.4 144.8 69% 62–78 ✓
Chicago State @ Wagner +9.1 116.2 80% 64–52 ✗
Central Connecticut @ Saint Francis -4.1 136.8 35% 74–59 ✓
Marist @ Iona -0.6 134.3 48% 70–65 ✓
Manhattan @ Siena +3.6 146.9 63% 95–103 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Saint Peter's +6.7 136.1 73% 59–46 ✗
Michigan State @ Ohio State +5.0 150.1 67% 69–62 ✗
Xavier @ Georgetown +0.2 148.6 51% 63–69 ✓
Creighton @ Marquette +13.8 147.4 89% 71–79 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Saint Louis -0.5 149.3 48% 57–73 ✗
Nevada @ New Mexico +2.5 155.0 59% 81–82 ✓
Florida @ Kentucky +1.8 164.4 57% 100–106 ✓
Georgia @ Ole Miss +3.6 145.8 63% 51–63 ✓
Oklahoma State @ West Virginia +16.6 143.0 93% 50–69 ✓
Boston College @ Georgia Tech +9.0 146.1 79% 64–85 ✓
NC State @ Wake Forest +1.7 131.2 56% 59–77 ✓
North Carolina @ Notre Dame -3.9 163.1 36% 74–73 ✓
Richmond @ Massachusetts +6.1 150.9 71% 72–64 ✗
Dayton @ George Washington -6.7 145.4 27% 62–82 ✗
DePaul @ Villanova +7.9 154.8 76% 56–100 ✓
William & Mary @ Stony Brook -5.1 160.6 32% 83–76 ✓
Hofstra @ Northeastern +7.1 133.9 74% 55–37 ✗
Toledo @ Western Michigan +2.3 154.5 58% 76–70 ✗
Arkansas @ Tennessee +13.1 137.1 88% 52–76 ✓
Vermont @ New Hampshire -4.2 126.3 35% 60–40 ✓
Texas State @ App State -0.9 128.9 47% 61–72 ✗
Milwaukee @ Detroit Mercy -5.5 147.9 31% 64–56 ✓
Green Bay @ Northern Kentucky +12.1 146.0 86% 60–78 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Queens University -3.1 140.6 39% 83–92 ✗
Chattanooga @ The Citadel -9.7 141.6 19% 81–68 ✓
Buffalo @ Miami (OH) +14.7 152.3 91% 79–93 ✓
Baylor @ Iowa State +5.2 160.1 68% 55–74 ✓
BYU @ Houston +12.6 134.7 87% 55–86 ✓
UCLA @ Nebraska -1.5 128.7 44% 58–66 ✗
South Carolina @ Mississippi State +12.2 145.2 87% 50–85 ✓
High Point @ UNC Asheville -0.4 150.5 48% 99–103 ✗
Presbyterian @ Gardner-Webb +4.7 149.7 67% 61–63 ✓
Charlotte @ Rice +8.3 140.0 77% 55–68 ✓
Tulsa @ UAB +12.7 164.9 88% 51–83 ✓
Miami @ Virginia Tech +0.8 148.0 53% 85–86 ✓
VCU @ Loyola Chicago -4.8 136.6 33% 84–65 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Fordham -9.5 138.4 19% 86–66 ✓
Duquesne @ Davidson +7.7 133.3 76% 71–77 ✓
George Mason @ Rhode Island +1.9 145.6 57% 59–62 ✓
Indiana State @ Evansville -4.4 153.3 34% 66–62 ✓
Stetson @ West Georgia +8.6 145.2 78% 78–62 ✗
Bellarmine @ Central Arkansas +6.8 155.4 73% 65–71 ✓
Maine @ Bryant +3.5 154.7 63% 55–81 ✓
UMBC @ Binghamton +0.1 153.8 51% 82–87 ✓
Butler @ St. John's +10.6 147.7 83% 62–70 ✓
UL Monroe @ Coastal Carolina +8.5 134.6 78% 51–70 ✓
Towson @ Charleston +10.2 140.1 82% 69–77 ✓
Drexel @ North Carolina A&T -3.2 146.5 38% 68–59 ✓
Lipscomb @ North Florida -5.0 161.7 33% 96–64 ✓
St. Thomas @ North Dakota -9.0 163.0 21% 88–80 ✓
Omaha @ North Dakota State +15.4 151.3 92% 85–80 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Eastern Michigan +10.2 145.3 82% 71–75 ✓
Ball State @ Kent State +11.5 126.7 85% 75–67 ✗
Western Kentucky @ Florida International -3.3 149.1 38% 66–85 ✗
Duke @ SMU -7.5 149.7 25% 89–62 ✓
Arizona @ Cincinnati +1.9 143.9 57% 72–67 ✗
Jackson State @ Alcorn State -0.9 140.3 47% 72–69 ✓
South Alabama @ Georgia Southern -6.1 142.8 29% 76–47 ✓
Robert Morris @ Oakland +5.5 137.9 69% 79–71 ✗
IU Indianapolis @ Cleveland State +9.5 140.8 81% 61–67 ✓
Austin Peay @ Jacksonville +7.8 129.6 76% 44–68 ✓
Samford @ Western Carolina -15.1 162.3 9% 88–69 ✓
McNeese @ East Texas A&M -13.9 133.1 10% 75–56 ✓
Missouri @ Auburn +18.9 160.0 96% 68–84 ✓
Kansas State @ TCU +7.8 139.7 76% 62–63 ✓
Louisville @ Virginia -2.8 125.5 40% 70–50 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Norfolk State +20.4 144.9 97% 59–81 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Valparaiso -4.3 151.3 35% 73–80 ✗
San Diego State @ Boise State +2.4 136.2 59% 76–68 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Alabama State +30.1 146.9 100% 55–84 ✓
UMass Lowell @ UAlbany +0.7 165.5 53% 73–69 ✗
Weber State @ Northern Arizona +4.6 145.9 66% 77–80 ✓
Portland State @ Sacramento State -3.4 140.7 38% 53–56 ✗
Idaho State @ Northern Colorado +6.5 150.1 72% 92–93 ✓
Southern Miss @ Old Dominion +0.2 144.4 51% 71–74 ✓
Troy @ Marshall -2.1 141.1 42% 58–57 ✓
Arkansas State @ James Madison -1.0 148.9 46% 62–67 ✗
Monmouth @ Delaware +6.0 157.4 71% 64–84 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Utah Valley +11.2 137.9 84% 53–64 ✓
Furman @ UNC Greensboro +0.6 127.4 52% 67–84 ✓
Wofford @ East Tennessee State +6.5 141.5 72% 81–78 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ New Mexico State -2.3 138.5 42% 48–78 ✗
Morehead State @ Tennessee Tech +6.3 145.6 72% 55–74 ✓
Winthrop @ Radford +2.1 152.1 58% 67–87 ✓
South Carolina State @ Morgan State -8.2 153.3 23% 86–72 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Coppin State -5.6 137.9 31% 61–63 ✗
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ SE Louisiana +2.0 142.1 57% 80–71 ✗
Mercer @ VMI -0.7 160.4 47% 70–67 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ UT Martin +3.0 138.2 61% 63–66 ✓
Little Rock @ Tennessee State -2.6 138.7 41% 86–95 ✗
Lindenwood @ SIU Edwardsville +10.1 136.8 82% 47–58 ✓
Western Illinois @ Eastern Illinois +5.8 137.4 70% 75–67 ✗
Nicholls @ Northwestern State +5.1 137.3 68% 66–68 ✓
Vanderbilt @ LSU +1.5 160.8 55% 80–72 ✗
UIC @ Belmont +5.6 168.8 69% 87–92 ✓
Wyoming @ Air Force -3.1 127.9 39% 70–65 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Alabama A&M +8.0 169.3 77% 79–89 ✓
Montana @ Idaho +0.8 156.3 53% 73–71 ✗
Montana State @ Eastern Washington -0.8 151.1 47% 63–68 ✗
Jacksonville State @ Kennesaw State -0.4 157.0 48% 71–83 ✗
Grambling @ Prairie View A&M +1.5 157.0 55% 55–73 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ North Alabama +6.3 155.4 72% 67–88 ✓
Oklahoma @ Alabama +11.8 168.0 86% 79–107 ✓
Colorado @ Arizona State +6.9 140.5 73% 61–81 ✓
UTSA @ Tulane +7.4 154.4 75% 63–92 ✓
Syracuse @ Florida State +11.7 159.4 86% 74–90 ✓
San José State @ UNLV +9.8 141.7 81% 73–79 ✓
Southern @ Texas Southern -0.7 144.5 48% 67–58 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ LSU New Orleans -8.0 162.0 23% 76–64 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Stephen F. Austin +4.9 126.8 67% 55–49 ✗
UC Davis @ Cal State Northridge +14.7 147.7 91% 61–73 ✓
San Diego @ Oregon State +19.6 139.3 96% 54–81 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Kansas City +10.1 138.7 82% 67–90 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Liberty +9.5 138.0 81% 63–73 ✓
Stanford @ Pittsburgh +15.1 151.2 91% 68–83 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Florida A&M -1.9 141.0 43% 62–55 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.