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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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44–7 on winners spread MAE 8.3 51 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Charleston Southern @ Longwood +9.4 145.4 80% 78–83 ✓
Texas Tech @ Utah -1.9 154.6 43% 93–65 ✓
Houston Christian @ Lamar +14.8 131.1 91% 61–63 ✓
Louisiana @ Georgia State +4.8 147.0 67% 70–94 ✓
Youngstown State @ Purdue Fort Wayne +8.0 149.2 77% 81–90 ✓
Campbell @ UNC Wilmington +10.6 141.9 83% 69–77 ✓
Hampton @ Elon +9.5 134.2 81% 62–70 ✓
Pepperdine @ Pacific -0.4 144.8 48% 87–70 ✓
San Francisco @ Washington State +2.8 148.0 60% 82–91 ✓
Ohio @ Central Michigan +2.9 153.4 61% 57–55 ✗
Texas @ Texas A&M +5.5 140.3 69% 60–80 ✓
Delaware State @ Howard +5.9 152.8 71% 94–100 ✓
Missouri State @ Bradley +13.8 146.0 90% 60–69 ✓
Michigan @ USC -7.3 146.7 25% 85–74 ✓
UT Arlington @ Tarleton State -6.1 139.5 29% 74–77 ✗
Southern Utah @ Grand Canyon +11.4 153.3 85% 71–82 ✓
Seattle U @ California Baptist +2.8 149.1 60% 59–61 ✓
Denver @ South Dakota +10.6 170.4 83% 84–91 ✓
California @ Clemson +14.2 151.8 90% 68–80 ✓
Gonzaga @ Loyola Marymount -15.7 147.7 8% 96–68 ✓
Fresno State @ Utah State +27.3 157.1 99% 83–89 ✓
UC San Diego @ Cal State Fullerton -13.8 136.0 10% 90–51 ✓
Sam Houston @ UTEP +7.7 156.3 76% 72–81 ✓
Long Beach State @ Cal State Bakersfield +8.8 132.7 79% 65–80 ✓
UC Riverside @ UC Irvine +13.8 139.4 90% 57–81 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Portland -15.9 142.8 7% 81–58 ✓
Cal Poly @ Hawai'i +4.0 165.2 64% 55–68 ✓
Indiana @ Penn State +10.0 158.9 82% 77–71 ✗
Florida Atlantic @ East Carolina -1.9 159.5 43% 78–76 ✓
Army @ Boston University +5.9 143.1 70% 63–71 ✓
Lehigh @ Loyola Maryland +4.5 146.3 66% 74–80 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Wagner +0.4 127.0 51% 71–59 ✗
Central Connecticut @ Mercyhurst -6.9 126.4 27% 62–50 ✓
Providence @ UConn +14.9 138.7 91% 84–87 ✓
Northwestern @ Purdue +6.7 137.9 73% 61–79 ✓
Stonehill @ Saint Francis +1.2 146.3 54% 64–60 ✗
Lafayette @ Navy +1.1 142.6 54% 70–71 ✓
Holy Cross @ American University +2.6 141.8 59% 64–75 ✓
Colgate @ Bucknell +7.0 137.8 74% 60–66 ✓
Chicago State @ Long Island University +10.5 136.6 83% 39–53 ✓
Iona @ Siena +7.9 138.8 76% 74–73 ✗
Manhattan @ Rider -0.9 150.6 47% 80–79 ✓
Niagara @ Mount St. Mary's +8.7 142.0 79% 62–68 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Marist +3.8 137.8 64% 62–69 ✓
Canisius @ Sacred Heart +14.9 150.1 91% 82–99 ✓
Murray State @ Drake +9.8 126.1 81% 66–59 ✗
Kansas @ UCF -5.4 151.5 31% 99–48 ✓
Maryland @ Oregon +0.6 149.9 52% 79–83 ✓
Illinois @ Washington -12.9 152.8 12% 81–77 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Illinois State +11.2 148.5 84% 54–85 ✓
North Texas @ Memphis +11.1 138.7 84% 64–68 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.