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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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28–11 on winners spread MAE 9.8 39 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Tennessee @ Florida -1.0 143.5 46% 43–73 ✗
Pittsburgh @ Duke +13.0 142.1 88% 47–76 ✓
Kentucky @ Georgia -0.5 158.2 48% 69–82 ✗
Arizona @ West Virginia +0.3 145.7 51% 75–56 ✗
Georgia Tech @ Syracuse +1.6 159.1 56% 55–62 ✓
Clemson @ Louisville +3.4 144.4 62% 64–74 ✓
Ohio @ Buffalo -6.1 158.4 29% 88–79 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Ball State +1.0 148.2 53% 80–72 ✗
Kent State @ Northern Illinois -12.6 128.6 13% 68–50 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Toledo +11.9 157.8 86% 87–90 ✓
Central Michigan @ Akron +8.4 147.4 78% 71–87 ✓
Bowling Green @ Western Michigan +4.3 148.6 65% 83–79 ✗
Tulane @ UAB +4.6 158.4 66% 69–81 ✓
Utah @ Iowa State +16.5 155.3 93% 59–82 ✓
Georgetown @ Marquette +15.0 143.3 91% 66–74 ✓
Cincinnati @ Baylor +5.0 140.7 67% 48–68 ✓
Kansas State @ Oklahoma State +1.4 149.9 55% 66–79 ✓
Tulsa @ UTSA +9.3 156.3 80% 82–77 ✗
UIC @ Missouri State +0.8 150.7 53% 80–63 ✗
Nebraska @ Iowa +0.7 157.0 53% 87–97 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Eastern Illinois -2.3 135.1 42% 60–57 ✓
Auburn @ Texas -10.4 153.9 17% 87–82 ✓
Mississippi State @ Vanderbilt +0.4 161.7 52% 76–64 ✗
Fresno State @ Colorado State +14.6 151.3 91% 64–91 ✓
Texas Tech @ BYU -0.9 153.7 47% 72–67 ✓
SMU @ North Carolina +5.7 175.6 70% 67–82 ✓
LSU @ Missouri +7.5 153.2 75% 67–83 ✓
Michigan @ UCLA +3.9 138.3 64% 94–75 ✗
Utah State @ San José State -11.2 150.4 15% 85–78 ✓
New Mexico @ Wyoming -3.9 154.2 36% 61–53 ✓
UNLV @ Boise State +9.1 142.3 80% 59–81 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Saint Mary's +13.3 132.7 89% 56–81 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Army +2.0 152.9 57% 72–74 ✓
Navy @ Holy Cross +5.3 148.1 69% 59–70 ✓
UConn @ Villanova +0.7 155.8 52% 66–68 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ La Salle +4.4 147.7 66% 79–68 ✗
DePaul @ Seton Hall -1.4 130.4 45% 80–85 ✗
Coastal Carolina @ App State +6.7 122.6 73% 51–74 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Youngstown State +4.2 132.5 65% 61–72 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.