Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | MOST -150 UIC +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UIC +17 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | MOST -0.8 (-17.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.8 (-7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -0.2 (-17.2) | 143.2 (-0.2) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -0.8 (-17.8) | 141.3 (+1.7) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -0.7 (-17.7) | 144.1 (-1.1) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UIC -0.1 (-16.9) | 144.4 (-1.4) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 16, 2025 | UIC 63 – 58 MOST |
| Mar 3, 2024 | MOST 69 – 59 UIC |
| Mar 3, 2023 | MOST 74 – 57 UIC |
| Jan 25, 2023 | MOST 63 – 59 UIC |
| Dec 1, 2022 | MOST 66 – 51 UIC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 10-10 |
| Home | 7-8 | 9-5 |
| Away | 1-12 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 75.3 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#211) | 0.6 (#151) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#246) | 0.76 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#212) | 0.59 (#133) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#229) | 0.559 (#78) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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