I had 'em all out there steppin' and fetchin' like their heads were on fire and their asses was catchin'. "The Ballad of Uneasy Rider" - Charlie Daniels
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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83–38 on winners spread MAE 9.8 121 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Long Island University @ Stonehill +5.2 133.7 68% 70–60 ✗
Minnesota @ Wisconsin +16.5 140.7 93% 59–80 ✓
Mercyhurst @ Saint Francis +5.4 138.1 69% 59–73 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Le Moyne +1.0 159.0 54% 91–86 ✗
Wagner @ Central Connecticut +15.6 107.7 92% 62–57 ✗
Siena @ Quinnipiac +5.9 142.3 70% 53–72 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Manhattan +2.2 158.9 58% 75–66 ✗
Rider @ Canisius -1.9 139.2 43% 67–85 ✗
Iona @ Fairfield +1.6 147.4 56% 64–68 ✓
UCLA @ Maryland +5.5 137.4 69% 61–79 ✓
Central Michigan @ Toledo +5.2 152.5 68% 67–69 ✓
Notre Dame @ Duke +24.1 135.9 99% 78–86 ✓
USC @ Illinois +21.3 152.5 97% 82–72 ✗
Louisville @ Pittsburgh +7.4 150.3 75% 82–78 ✗
La Salle @ St. Bonaventure +13.5 139.3 89% 83–82 ✗
Brown @ Yale +13.9 148.2 90% 58–79 ✓
Creighton @ Butler +0.4 143.7 52% 80–76 ✗
Auburn @ South Carolina -17.7 149.8 5% 66–63 ✓
Belmont @ Indiana State +2.7 181.1 60% 84–79 ✗
San Diego State @ New Mexico -1.5 147.7 45% 48–62 ✗
Holy Cross @ Lafayette +4.9 136.3 67% 65–82 ✓
NJIT @ UMass Lowell +18.9 145.9 96% 62–70 ✓
Binghamton @ New Hampshire -4.2 135.6 35% 72–79 ✗
James Madison @ App State +1.6 132.2 56% 66–86 ✓
Charleston @ Monmouth -5.6 151.3 30% 73–84 ✗
UNC Wilmington @ Hofstra +1.3 130.3 55% 63–66 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Ohio +20.1 149.3 97% 70–108 ✓
Iowa State @ Texas Tech +1.9 150.6 57% 85–84 ✗
UConn @ Georgetown -4.3 144.6 35% 68–60 ✓
Kansas @ Cincinnati -1.6 132.0 44% 54–40 ✓
East Carolina @ Memphis +19.5 150.3 96% 70–74 ✓
Radford @ South Carolina Upstate -5.1 153.5 32% 80–67 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Presbyterian +2.0 149.5 57% 96–87 ✗
Longwood @ Winthrop +3.3 156.9 62% 76–95 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Northwestern State +10.8 135.3 84% 67–75 ✓
BYU @ TCU -1.4 138.0 45% 67–71 ✗
Temple @ Rice +1.2 142.0 54% 73–70 ✗
South Florida @ Tulane +4.5 149.0 66% 70–73 ✓
Florida State @ Clemson +7.7 145.5 76% 57–77 ✓
Massachusetts @ George Mason +16.3 141.8 93% 70–77 ✓
Fordham @ Davidson +12.9 151.2 88% 64–74 ✓
Boston University @ Colgate +2.8 124.7 60% 50–87 ✓
Army @ Lehigh +5.4 155.3 69% 74–69 ✗
Cornell @ Columbia +3.1 165.4 61% 94–83 ✗
Princeton @ Harvard -3.5 144.3 38% 68–64 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Dartmouth +9.4 146.3 80% 70–73 ✓
UAlbany @ Maine +5.0 144.0 67% 66–87 ✓
Cleveland State @ Youngstown State +5.5 134.5 69% 80–72 ✗
North Carolina A&T @ William & Mary +13.5 173.3 89% 78–81 ✓
Towson @ Drexel +6.2 121.6 71% 93–82 ✗
Delaware @ Hampton +2.5 150.2 59% 77–83 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Florida Gulf Coast +17.0 142.3 94% 71–77 ✓
South Dakota State @ Omaha -4.0 149.8 36% 80–87 ✗
Bowling Green @ Ball State +5.1 151.7 68% 69–91 ✓
Syracuse @ Boston College +0.2 152.6 51% 79–71 ✗
Loyola Chicago @ Saint Joseph's +7.1 143.3 74% 57–93 ✓
Bradley @ UIC +0.0 155.3 50% 61–60 ✗
San José State @ Air Force -1.8 135.2 43% 69–62 ✓
Old Dominion @ South Alabama +20.6 133.8 97% 71–63 ✗
Texas State @ Southern Miss -5.1 143.7 32% 88–92 ✗
North Dakota State @ Denver -10.7 159.7 16% 69–50 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Western Kentucky +7.2 158.7 74% 69–85 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Missouri +4.9 160.3 67% 66–75 ✓
Western Michigan @ Miami (OH) +10.8 148.1 84% 71–91 ✓
Akron @ Eastern Michigan -6.9 157.6 27% 105–81 ✓
Florida International @ Sam Houston +6.7 157.0 73% 74–81 ✓
Florida @ Arkansas -4.8 151.4 33% 71–63 ✓
UNLV @ Colorado State +5.6 139.6 69% 62–84 ✓
Wichita State @ UTSA -3.5 162.3 38% 75–88 ✗
Georgia Tech @ SMU +13.2 156.8 89% 71–93 ✓
Virginia @ Stanford +6.7 124.9 73% 65–88 ✓
North Carolina @ NC State -5.6 158.3 31% 63–61 ✓
Morgan State @ Howard +12.3 171.0 87% 95–100 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ North Carolina Central +10.5 149.7 83% 69–88 ✓
Delaware State @ South Carolina State +10.8 145.6 84% 76–75 ✗
Valparaiso @ Murray State +8.9 154.0 79% 47–58 ✓
Bucknell @ American University +1.3 139.8 55% 58–68 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Alcorn State +8.0 148.9 77% 52–62 ✓
Vermont @ Bryant +7.4 139.0 75% 53–73 ✓
Xavier @ DePaul -2.6 156.3 41% 77–63 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Sacramento State -2.7 134.2 40% 65–54 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Marshall +10.9 152.4 84% 69–81 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia State +2.7 136.2 60% 74–79 ✓
Green Bay @ Milwaukee +15.9 155.7 93% 59–70 ✓
Hawai'i @ Cal State Fullerton -6.7 131.1 27% 95–86 ✓
North Alabama @ Stetson -9.7 149.9 19% 92–64 ✓
Jacksonville @ Eastern Kentucky +1.9 146.8 57% 82–75 ✗
California Baptist @ Utah Valley +5.9 141.2 71% 69–75 ✓
The Citadel @ East Tennessee State +20.6 138.5 97% 52–70 ✓
Coppin State @ Norfolk State +23.2 134.8 98% 69–92 ✓
Alabama State @ Jackson State +1.5 151.2 55% 70–77 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +6.0 164.5 71% 74–79 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Houston Christian -1.8 136.6 44% 76–81 ✗
Arkansas State @ Troy +2.4 141.7 59% 84–78 ✗
Tennessee State @ Western Illinois +4.4 152.9 65% 72–52 ✗
UT Martin @ Lindenwood +0.3 134.3 51% 81–82 ✓
Morehead State @ Southeast Missouri State +9.0 140.8 79% 67–56 ✗
Navy @ Loyola Maryland +7.1 147.3 74% 74–75 ✓
Nicholls @ McNeese +15.5 138.9 92% 71–80 ✓
Idaho @ Portland State +2.9 151.3 60% 63–75 ✓
Seton Hall @ Providence +10.8 123.6 84% 85–91 ✓
West Georgia @ Lipscomb +21.3 137.2 97% 67–86 ✓
Queens University @ Austin Peay -1.0 136.4 46% 67–60 ✓
Long Beach State @ UC Davis +8.5 132.0 78% 84–73 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ SIU Edwardsville +5.9 135.1 70% 59–67 ✓
Wake Forest @ Miami +1.0 144.1 54% 88–78 ✗
Bethune-Cookman @ Grambling -1.6 133.3 44% 65–59 ✓
Tennessee @ Texas -4.7 135.2 34% 74–70 ✓
Houston @ Kansas State -16.7 133.1 6% 87–57 ✓
Oklahoma @ Georgia +7.3 147.2 75% 62–72 ✓
LSU @ Ole Miss +10.3 147.8 82% 65–77 ✓
Virginia Tech @ California +8.0 149.2 77% 71–68 ✗
Rhode Island @ Richmond -5.7 147.2 30% 67–64 ✓
Evansville @ Drake +16.4 114.9 93% 40–63 ✓
Florida A&M @ Southern +11.1 137.7 84% 57–91 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Montana +1.2 166.4 54% 81–57 ✗
SE Louisiana @ LSU New Orleans -6.4 142.7 28% 91–71 ✓
Oakland @ Northern Kentucky +4.3 129.1 65% 68–53 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ Samford +5.1 153.3 68% 69–76 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Middle Tennessee +4.8 152.1 67% 64–81 ✓
North Florida @ Bellarmine -6.2 170.5 29% 98–83 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.