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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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37–13 on winners spread MAE 9.9 50 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Binghamton @ UAlbany	+6.9	145.1	73%	66–69	✓
Cal Poly @ Long Beach State	-4.4	161.1	34%	83–69	✓
Quinnipiac @ Fairfield	-6.3	145.9	28%	74–83	✗
Sacramento State @ Weber State	+4.1	132.9	64%	70–83	✓
Texas Tech @ Arizona State	-8.3	151.7	23%	85–57	✓
South Dakota @ Omaha	+3.0	173.3	61%	75–100	✓
Virginia @ Syracuse	+1.3	138.2	55%	70–84	✓
Duquesne @ Saint Louis	+5.5	136.1	69%	88–90	✓
USC @ UCLA	+9.7	142.0	81%	63–90	✓
Hawai'i @ Cal State Northridge	+11.4	149.3	85%	73–82	✓
Oklahoma @ Texas	+4.8	154.0	67%	76–72	✗
Utah Valley @ Tarleton State	-9.1	129.3	20%	71–66	✓
UT Arlington @ California Baptist	+6.7	148.4	73%	68–70	✓
Furman @ Samford	+2.7	155.2	60%	95–78	✗
Hofstra @ Monmouth	-3.0	132.9	39%	60–65	✗
Pepperdine @ Oregon State	+12.1	149.4	86%	77–73	✗
Old Dominion @ Troy	+11.2	133.8	85%	59–75	✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Southeast Missouri State	+2.3	138.9	58%	69–48	✗
UC Riverside @ Cal State Fullerton	-12.6	147.1	13%	64–59	✓
Seattle U @ Utah Tech	-6.7	139.5	27%	70–65	✓
Houston @ Baylor	-6.4	134.4	28%	65–61	✓
Eastern Washington @ Northern Arizona	+2.3	146.1	58%	53–66	✓
UC Irvine @ UC Santa Barbara	-3.7	136.6	37%	97–88	✓
Utah @ BYU	+11.1	155.0	84%	74–85	✓
Nevada @ San Diego State	+6.1	130.2	71%	61–80	✓
North Dakota @ St. Thomas	+8.6	163.3	78%	69–85	✓
UC San Diego @ UC Davis	-14.3	132.8	10%	68–57	✓
Loyola Marymount @ Washington State	+2.2	149.0	58%	77–94	✓
Michigan @ Michigan State	+6.8	147.2	73%	62–79	✓
Drexel @ Towson	+1.4	126.4	55%	76–82	✓
Navy @ Bucknell	+7.3	146.6	75%	83–77	✗
Winthrop @ High Point	+7.2	167.9	74%	69–81	✓
Iowa @ Nebraska	+6.0	159.6	71%	83–68	✗
East Carolina @ Florida Atlantic	+6.5	157.0	72%	53–81	✓
Minnesota @ Rutgers	+5.0	144.1	68%	67–75	✓
Colgate @ American University	+2.6	138.4	59%	62–72	✓
North Alabama @ Lipscomb	+5.8	146.4	70%	65–76	✓
North Texas @ Temple	-5.5	137.3	31%	61–66	✗
UAB @ Tulane	-0.3	157.2	49%	68–85	✗
Tulsa @ Wichita State	+12.4	143.8	87%	73–63	✗
Bradley @ Drake	+2.4	127.7	58%	48–63	✓
Delaware @ William & Mary	+2.5	170.0	59%	100–78	✗
Oregon @ Washington	-7.4	148.0	25%	80–73	✓
Furman @ Chattanooga	+1.7	150.3	56%	80–77	✗
UTSA @ Charlotte	-0.5	153.5	48%	83–80	✓
Hampton @ UNC Wilmington	+5.9	141.3	70%	65–79	✓
Houston Christian @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	+6.9	138.3	73%	48–62	✓
Arkansas State @ South Alabama	-3.2	140.3	38%	74–71	✓
VMI @ Wofford	+9.3	142.5	80%	65–85	✓
Weber State @ Northern Colorado	+9.8	151.9	81%	52–76	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.