Then she opened up a book of poems and handed it to me, written by an Italian poet from the thirteenth century. "Tangled Up in Blue" - Bob Dylan
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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17–8 on winners spread MAE 15.1 25 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Indiana State @ SIU Edwardsville +26.1 156.4 99% 64–55 ✗
South Carolina State @ North Carolina A&T +20.8 153.0 97% 62–85 ✓
Presbyterian @ Georgia State +28.2 128.6 99% 63–61 ✗
Fairfield @ Seton Hall -4.9 128.1 33% 59–82 ✗
Charleston Southern @ The Citadel +13.6 138.1 89% 96–86 ✗
Eastern Michigan @ Pittsburgh +12.6 131.7 87% 66–78 ✓
Stetson @ Miami +33.1 154.1 100% 61–102 ✓
Mississippi State @ Iowa State +10.3 147.8 83% 80–96 ✓
Lindenwood @ Saint Louis +28.2 162.2 99% 66–109 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ LSU +12.7 147.2 88% 58–93 ✓
Cleveland State @ Northwestern +22.0 149.8 98% 63–110 ✓
Santa Clara @ Xavier +11.2 143.2 85% 87–68 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Grand Canyon +6.4 176.3 72% 59–88 ✓
Holy Cross @ Utah +17.4 161.8 94% 69–87 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Georgia Tech +13.5 123.6 89% 60–70 ✓
St. Thomas @ Washington State +14.3 154.6 90% 71–81 ✓
West Georgia @ UCLA +16.6 142.4 93% 62–83 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ California +15.1 156.2 92% 65–93 ✓
Iona @ Kansas City +12.9 163.3 88% 105–91 ✗
Long Island University @ Air Force +0.1 143.1 50% 76–72 ✗
UMBC @ Morgan State +10.1 159.1 82% 81–79 ✗
Wake Forest @ Michigan +12.7 161.6 88% 84–85 ✓
App State @ Ohio State +15.1 158.2 91% 53–75 ✓
Lipscomb @ UNC Asheville +24.3 157.0 99% 64–69 ✓
Navy @ Penn State +32.8 147.9 100% 71–80 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.