And Harry doesn't mind if he doesn't make the scene. "Sultans of Swing" - Dire Straits
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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38–13 on winners spread MAE 10.8 51 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Iowa @ Michigan State +5.1 135.7 68% 52–71 ✓
Tennessee @ Syracuse -5.2 148.6 32% 60–62 ✗
New Mexico State @ South Alabama -3.8 135.7 36% 75–77 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ UNC Asheville +7.2 146.5 74% 77–82 ✓
Jackson State @ Kennesaw State +21.8 170.8 98% 73–88 ✓
Cornell @ George Mason +12.8 161.5 88% 81–99 ✓
Georgia State @ Mercer +23.2 153.1 98% 67–78 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ North Florida +0.3 153.7 51% 72–63 ✗
Florida A&M @ Jacksonville +14.7 134.4 91% 82–85 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Butler +19.8 144.9 96% 68–84 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ East Carolina +8.3 130.2 77% 56–68 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Charlotte +6.3 150.3 72% 57–74 ✓
Lehigh @ Binghamton -5.2 145.2 32% 71–80 ✗
Brown @ Rhode Island +18.6 136.8 95% 56–66 ✓
William & Mary @ Duquesne -2.8 175.1 40% 83–79 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Dayton +4.4 147.7 65% 71–88 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Providence +28.6 175.6 100% 64–94 ✓
Virginia Tech @ South Carolina +5.2 155.5 68% 86–83 ✗
Oklahoma @ Wake Forest +11.3 163.5 85% 86–68 ✗
Texas A&M @ Pittsburgh -1.3 147.5 45% 81–73 ✓
Florida @ Duke +17.9 154.3 95% 66–67 ✓
Western Illinois @ Drake +17.1 139.5 94% 57–108 ✓
Grambling @ Tulane +4.5 158.5 66% 63–65 ✓
Winthrop @ Long Island University -6.3 160.9 28% 94–92 ✓
Purdue @ Rutgers -15.8 143.3 8% 81–65 ✓
Houston Christian @ North Texas +9.3 122.3 80% 75–77 ✓
Wagner @ Maryland +4.2 160.6 65% 63–89 ✓
Morehead State @ Murray State +17.8 164.7 95% 52–84 ✓
Washington State @ Bradley +11.6 161.4 85% 60–64 ✓
UT Arlington @ Arkansas State +1.7 150.8 56% 63–83 ✓
Lindenwood @ Northern Illinois +9.3 154.4 80% 99–64 ✗
Valparaiso @ Marquette +10.7 145.7 84% 72–75 ✓
Sacramento State @ Baylor +20.3 160.4 97% 88–110 ✓
Central Michigan @ Loyola Chicago -0.7 145.3 47% 72–83 ✗
Sam Houston @ Oklahoma State +9.9 177.1 82% 83–93 ✓
UConn @ Kansas +2.3 140.0 58% 61–56 ✗
Stetson @ Grand Canyon +19.2 141.8 96% 45–67 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Pepperdine +8.5 130.1 78% 71–63 ✗
Nicholls @ Creighton +14.4 139.2 91% 76–96 ✓
Miami @ Ole Miss -2.4 151.2 41% 75–66 ✓
Georgia @ Florida State -2.2 179.4 42% 107–73 ✓
Missouri @ Notre Dame +0.3 151.4 51% 71–76 ✓
North Carolina @ Kentucky +15.3 157.5 92% 67–64 ✗
USC @ Oregon -7.9 166.9 24% 82–77 ✓
UC San Diego @ Nevada +0.2 162.6 51% 70–76 ✓
Utah @ California +17.2 161.3 94% 72–79 ✓
Saint Louis @ Loyola Marymount -4.2 142.9 35% 91–70 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ UIC +19.0 163.8 96% 63–62 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ Lipscomb +16.2 149.9 93% 80–83 ✓
Northeastern @ Holy Cross -5.3 138.9 31% 59–76 ✗
Wright State @ Youngstown State +2.2 145.0 58% 68–69 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.