I had 'em all out there steppin' and fetchin' like their heads were on fire and their asses was catchin'. "The Ballad of Uneasy Rider" - Charlie Daniels
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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36–24 on winners spread MAE 9.4 60 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Ole Miss @ Georgia +14.6 162.2 91% 97–95 ✗
Illinois State @ Indiana State -8.4 144.9 22% 89–94 ✗
St. Bonaventure @ Saint Joseph's -3.0 150.8 39% 64–68 ✗
La Salle @ Richmond +11.4 146.3 85% 53–74 ✓
Davidson @ George Washington +12.7 152.3 88% 84–79 ✗
East Carolina @ South Florida +24.7 161.9 99% 71–82 ✓
Tulsa @ Charlotte -7.3 156.0 25% 86–74 ✓
Colorado @ Cincinnati +4.4 149.9 65% 68–77 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Charleston Southern +8.8 153.4 79% 86–81 ✗
UNC Asheville @ Presbyterian -2.0 130.5 43% 70–71 ✗
Radford @ Gardner-Webb -10.2 167.3 18% 89–80 ✓
Iona @ Rider -10.8 143.6 16% 68–72 ✗
Pittsburgh @ Georgia Tech +0.3 145.4 51% 89–66 ✗
Saint Peter's @ Quinnipiac +9.6 142.9 81% 74–70 ✗
Colgate @ Loyola Maryland -8.3 154.3 23% 86–80 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Siena +11.1 141.7 84% 86–80 ✗
Niagara @ Canisius +5.2 125.0 68% 59–54 ✗
Manhattan @ Fairfield +8.5 162.9 78% 62–98 ✓
Furman @ Samford -2.9 146.8 40% 77–73 ✓
Southern Miss @ Troy +7.4 158.1 75% 65–91 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Marshall +10.9 150.1 84% 85–83 ✗
Auburn @ Missouri -2.7 163.6 40% 74–84 ✗
Kentucky @ LSU -0.1 156.4 50% 75–74 ✓
Florida International @ Kennesaw State +3.2 174.9 62% 86–89 ✓
Sam Houston @ Jacksonville State -4.1 147.8 35% 77–62 ✓
Lafayette @ Bucknell +3.3 139.4 62% 69–76 ✓
UAB @ Tulane -2.9 152.7 40% 82–69 ✓
Missouri State @ Western Kentucky +7.0 147.4 74% 72–87 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Louisiana Tech -7.4 126.7 25% 58–59 ✗
San Diego State @ Wyoming +3.6 156.8 63% 74–57 ✗
Drake @ Southern Illinois +7.4 150.4 75% 76–73 ✗
Fordham @ Saint Louis +21.0 148.7 97% 56–78 ✓
Rice @ UTSA -4.8 139.7 33% 89–73 ✓
Temple @ Memphis +8.7 150.5 78% 53–55 ✓
UCF @ Kansas State +0.7 171.0 53% 82–73 ✗
South Dakota State @ North Dakota State +6.2 154.1 71% 65–76 ✓
Louisiana @ Texas State +7.5 129.1 75% 54–59 ✓
Illinois @ Northwestern -9.2 152.2 20% 79–68 ✓
UCLA @ Penn State -2.2 150.7 42% 71–60 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Texas -7.3 171.1 25% 64–80 ✗
North Carolina @ Stanford -3.8 145.3 37% 90–95 ✗
Utah @ Texas Tech +17.6 160.2 94% 74–88 ✓
South Carolina @ Arkansas +10.8 161.1 84% 74–108 ✓
Portland @ Pepperdine -0.3 144.5 49% 63–67 ✗
Virginia Tech @ SMU +9.6 166.2 81% 76–77 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Denver +6.6 161.7 73% 87–98 ✓
Nevada @ Utah State +13.5 155.5 89% 62–71 ✓
Pacific @ Santa Clara +12.9 151.8 88% 69–85 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Oregon State -1.5 141.0 45% 70–76 ✗
Arizona State @ Arizona +22.9 161.9 98% 82–89 ✓
Michigan @ Washington -15.3 161.4 8% 82–72 ✓
Duke @ California -11.2 147.7 16% 71–56 ✓
TCU @ BYU +12.4 156.0 87% 70–76 ✓
NJIT @ UMass Lowell +10.5 150.8 83% 73–64 ✗
UMBC @ Bryant -1.7 133.9 44% 74–79 ✗
Mercer @ VMI -14.3 157.4 10% 77–67 ✓
New Mexico State @ Liberty +6.4 144.1 72% 71–73 ✓
Robert Morris @ IU Indianapolis -5.5 172.2 31% 93–96 ✗
Binghamton @ UAlbany +11.6 147.1 85% 53–69 ✓
James Madison @ App State +3.1 136.1 61% 65–80 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.