If I had my time again / I would do it all the same. "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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36–18 on winners spread MAE 8.3 54 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Florida @ Georgia -4.2 169.2 35% 86–66 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Clemson +8.8 143.3 79% 76–66 ✗
American University @ Lehigh -0.8 147.8 47% 82–90 ✗
UTSA @ East Carolina +11.1 145.5 84% 72–88 ✓
California @ Syracuse +2.5 146.9 59% 100–107 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Lafayette +4.2 150.1 65% 68–54 ✗
Toledo @ Western Michigan -5.3 158.4 31% 90–79 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Kent State +7.4 151.2 75% 91–95 ✓
Buffalo @ Ball State -5.7 141.5 30% 63–53 ✓
VMI @ UNC Greensboro +10.8 155.0 84% 71–92 ✓
Wofford @ Samford +2.0 152.9 57% 80–97 ✓
Furman @ Mercer +5.0 153.8 67% 64–69 ✓
Chattanooga @ East Tennessee State +14.4 145.0 90% 61–73 ✓
Alabama @ Ole Miss -7.2 163.3 26% 93–74 ✓
West Georgia @ North Alabama +0.0 148.8 50% 82–73 ✗
North Florida @ Florida Gulf Coast +11.5 171.9 85% 81–90 ✓
Jacksonville @ Stetson -0.5 141.5 48% 62–67 ✗
Austin Peay @ Queens University -0.8 161.6 47% 95–87 ✓
UTEP @ Jacksonville State +7.0 130.1 74% 69–64 ✗
UConn @ Butler -10.0 148.8 18% 80–70 ✓
Temple @ Tulane -0.3 148.1 49% 66–77 ✗
South Florida @ Wichita State +1.1 164.0 54% 66–58 ✗
Providence @ Seton Hall +5.2 159.0 68% 80–87 ✓
Marshall @ Old Dominion -3.3 154.9 38% 81–79 ✓
Bellarmine @ Central Arkansas +9.5 158.1 81% 76–84 ✓
Colorado @ Texas Tech +13.0 161.4 88% 44–78 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Rice -6.8 156.8 27% 73–81 ✗
UAB @ Tulsa +12.3 164.2 87% 68–63 ✗
North Dakota @ South Dakota +3.8 164.9 64% 72–71 ✗
Bowling Green @ Northern Illinois -7.9 142.8 24% 68–52 ✓
Troy @ Texas State -6.0 149.7 29% 62–74 ✗
UL Monroe @ Arkansas State +21.3 167.5 97% 70–103 ✓
App State @ Georgia Southern -2.0 145.0 43% 81–65 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Lipscomb +8.4 163.4 78% 61–75 ✓
Michigan @ Northwestern -17.7 156.3 5% 87–75 ✓
Cincinnati @ Kansas State +0.0 148.7 50% 91–62 ✗
Creighton @ DePaul -0.4 141.7 49% 71–72 ✗
Wake Forest @ Georgia Tech -4.4 157.9 34% 83–67 ✓
Stanford @ Boston College -3.2 137.9 39% 70–64 ✓
Tennessee @ Mississippi State -10.2 149.4 18% 73–64 ✓
Missouri @ Texas A&M +8.2 165.2 77% 86–85 ✗
Liberty @ New Mexico State -2.6 147.5 41% 77–75 ✓
Portland @ San Diego +1.6 156.9 56% 58–71 ✓
Seattle U @ Santa Clara +14.9 145.3 91% 72–84 ✓
Pepperdine @ Saint Mary's +25.0 139.8 99% 60–88 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Pacific +6.3 138.8 72% 59–65 ✓
New Mexico @ Grand Canyon -0.7 145.2 47% 70–64 ✓
Penn State @ Washington +12.7 155.5 88% 63–60 ✗
NJIT @ New Hampshire +3.0 141.8 61% 76–70 ✗
UMBC @ Maine -3.9 130.0 36% 78–62 ✓
Bryant @ UMass Lowell +5.4 142.3 69% 69–88 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ IU Indianapolis -6.1 172.9 29% 84–81 ✓
Vermont @ Binghamton -12.3 146.2 13% 73–65 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Kennesaw State +2.6 157.4 59% 90–87 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.