Just tell me where it hurts and I'll tell you who to call. "Quinn the Eskimo" - Bob Dylan
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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36–19 on winners spread MAE 9.1 55 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
St. John's @ UConn +5.0 147.2 67% 40–72 ✓
Maryland @ Nebraska +20.3 142.3 97% 61–74 ✓
Florida @ Texas -6.1 159.6 29% 84–71 ✓
Georgia @ Vanderbilt +7.8 174.1 76% 80–88 ✓
Illinois State @ Northern Iowa +3.4 124.5 62% 71–69 ✗
Lafayette @ Colgate +10.6 149.1 83% 70–69 ✗
Lehigh @ American University +7.1 146.5 74% 78–73 ✗
George Mason @ Saint Joseph's -1.8 136.5 43% 63–81 ✗
Davidson @ Duquesne +2.1 148.8 57% 67–56 ✗
North Texas @ Charlotte +1.0 134.3 54% 79–80 ✓
Holy Cross @ Boston University +7.3 146.0 75% 63–78 ✓
Butler @ Villanova +9.5 152.6 81% 73–82 ✓
Navy @ Loyola Maryland -8.9 146.4 21% 78–51 ✓
Omaha @ South Dakota -0.3 161.7 49% 72–89 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Robert Morris +8.0 154.8 77% 62–73 ✓
Wright State @ Purdue Fort Wayne -3.6 150.7 37% 74–70 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Cleveland State -6.8 168.4 27% 81–70 ✓
Mercer @ Western Carolina -1.5 163.6 45% 74–78 ✗
Wofford @ East Tennessee State +10.4 151.6 83% 72–69 ✗
Lipscomb @ West Georgia -7.0 156.2 26% 78–84 ✗
Queens University @ Eastern Kentucky -1.2 172.6 46% 96–79 ✓
Xavier @ Providence +6.7 180.9 73% 84–94 ✓
Evansville @ Belmont +21.8 153.4 98% 64–98 ✓
Tulsa @ Tulane -8.2 156.3 23% 90–56 ✓
Drake @ Valparaiso +4.7 146.3 67% 71–74 ✓
Indiana State @ Southern Illinois +9.7 148.2 81% 55–66 ✓
South Florida @ Rice -13.1 165.5 12% 75–56 ✓
East Carolina @ UTSA -4.7 147.9 33% 82–81 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Stanford +6.1 140.6 71% 67–75 ✓
Youngstown State @ Milwaukee -1.7 149.1 44% 65–78 ✗
Georgia Southern @ James Madison +6.3 160.0 72% 66–82 ✓
UL Monroe @ South Alabama +16.3 154.5 93% 54–89 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Austin Peay +4.3 149.1 65% 93–88 ✗
Portland @ Gonzaga +30.0 152.7 100% 48–89 ✓
Mississippi State @ Alabama +16.8 175.9 94% 75–100 ✓
Seattle U @ Pepperdine -7.4 137.5 25% 87–80 ✓
Kansas State @ Colorado +5.4 167.5 69% 70–79 ✓
Ohio State @ Iowa +4.8 146.2 67% 57–74 ✓
UNLV @ Grand Canyon +9.1 153.4 80% 67–80 ✓
DePaul @ Creighton +5.3 142.0 68% 72–71 ✗
LSU @ Ole Miss -0.5 148.6 48% 106–99 ✓
Texas A&M @ Arkansas +9.1 178.0 80% 84–99 ✓
Bellarmine @ North Alabama -3.1 153.0 39% 68–73 ✗
San Diego @ Oregon State +5.8 150.8 70% 82–92 ✓
SMU @ California -2.9 161.7 39% 69–73 ✗
Wisconsin @ Oregon -7.3 154.7 25% 71–85 ✗
Washington State @ Loyola Marymount +1.2 150.6 54% 66–67 ✓
Santa Clara @ Saint Mary's +4.3 152.1 65% 67–86 ✓
Utah State @ San Diego State -3.1 152.4 39% 72–89 ✗
Charleston @ Hampton -3.6 139.2 37% 85–71 ✓
Rhode Island @ St. Bonaventure +0.9 145.6 53% 76–94 ✓
New Hampshire @ Binghamton -2.3 144.2 42% 63–65 ✗
Bryant @ UMBC +13.7 136.4 89% 58–70 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Grambling +1.3 142.7 55% 76–71 ✗
Maine @ UAlbany +5.9 129.7 70% 70–59 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.