You just want to be on the side that's winning. "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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45–17 on winners spread MAE 8.8 62 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Memphis @ Florida Atlantic -4.4 159.6 37% 90–62 ✓
Radford @ High Point +5.1 140.8 74% 58–76 ✓
Army @ Colgate +2.3 149.4 64% 59–71 ✓
Boston University @ Lafayette +1.0 131.8 53% 46–60 ✓
Bucknell @ Lehigh +2.7 142.5 71% 64–66 ✓
American University @ Navy +0.5 143.2 59% 58–81 ✓
Northwestern @ Penn State +5.5 145.7 71% 80–84 ✓
Southern Miss @ James Madison +9.8 136.8 85% 72–83 ✓
South Alabama @ Georgia State -7.0 135.4 23% 77–51 ✓
UL Monroe @ Georgia Southern +7.3 150.8 78% 82–90 ✓
Texas State @ Marshall -0.3 140.6 47% 71–77 ✗
Louisiana @ Coastal Carolina +4.8 137.3 68% 71–68 ✗
Arkansas State @ Old Dominion -12.3 152.0 15% 78–59 ✓
Robert Morris @ Detroit Mercy -0.1 143.4 43% 76–78 ✗
Milwaukee @ Oakland -1.2 142.6 46% 49–65 ✗
Green Bay @ Wright State +10.6 150.9 84% 51–74 ✓
Elon @ North Carolina A&T -6.6 146.2 26% 75–67 ✓
Hampton @ Charleston +4.4 145.2 68% 67–94 ✓
William & Mary @ Hofstra +5.3 147.3 70% 74–56 ✗
Towson @ UNC Wilmington +7.0 134.2 78% 65–61 ✗
Delaware @ Northeastern +5.8 151.8 74% 77–80 ✓
Drexel @ Campbell -2.6 134.7 44% 54–57 ✗
Stony Brook @ Monmouth +3.9 139.1 63% 56–78 ✓
Stetson @ Queens University +10.7 148.7 85% 87–96 ✓
Bellarmine @ North Alabama +15.5 146.7 89% 66–82 ✓
Lipscomb @ Jacksonville -6.4 140.5 26% 70–65 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ West Georgia -8.4 135.1 25% 79–68 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Florida International -2.3 147.6 41% 73–69 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Liberty +9.9 142.4 75% 71–70 ✗
Purdue @ Minnesota -5.2 136.4 28% 81–61 ✓
Illinois State @ Murray State +4.0 146.0 65% 74–68 ✗
Idaho State @ Northern Arizona +1.9 140.9 57% 72–67 ✗
Weber State @ Northern Colorado +8.1 151.8 77% 72–89 ✓
UC Irvine @ Cal Poly -8.9 152.5 24% 98–89 ✓
St. Thomas @ North Dakota State +5.3 154.1 66% 89–85 ✗
South Dakota @ Kansas City +2.7 152.3 61% 54–68 ✓
Omaha @ North Dakota +1.3 147.6 58% 95–85 ✗
Rutgers @ Indiana +5.9 152.6 75% 74–84 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Central Arkansas -5.6 147.8 32% 89–83 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Tennessee Tech +3.6 145.0 66% 64–68 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Tennessee State -2.9 151.5 30% 67–65 ✓
Little Rock @ UT Martin +1.1 136.0 46% 57–56 ✗
Lindenwood @ Eastern Illinois +1.9 140.9 57% 74–78 ✓
Portland @ Gonzaga +29.0 158.9 91% 50–81 ✓
Montana State @ Idaho +0.1 147.9 54% 64–69 ✓
Montana @ Eastern Washington -1.0 150.5 49% 92–81 ✓
Denver @ South Dakota State +12.7 151.2 86% 70–91 ✓
Western Illinois @ SIU Edwardsville +6.2 134.7 70% 66–77 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ UTEP +1.8 137.6 58% 60–70 ✓
Sam Houston @ New Mexico State +0.8 151.5 59% 71–75 ✓
Maryland @ Washington -8.3 146.1 26% 69–75 ✗
UC Davis @ Cal State Bakersfield +1.7 135.7 54% 64–75 ✓
Illinois @ Oregon +1.9 154.6 69% 109–77 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ Cal State Fullerton -6.3 143.0 29% 95–65 ✓
UC Riverside @ Long Beach State -4.3 139.3 34% 76–60 ✓
Pepperdine @ Saint Mary's +13.0 141.5 87% 41–71 ✓
Santa Clara @ San Diego -11.2 147.6 14% 81–80 ✓
San Francisco @ Pacific -10.7 139.5 16% 89–81 ✓
Oregon State @ Loyola Marymount -4.9 136.3 36% 61–82 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ Hawai'i +1.6 135.1 58% 64–61 ✗
Fairfield @ Merrimack +8.6 134.6 81% 54–67 ✓
Akron @ Bowling Green -3.6 154.5 39% 71–68 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.