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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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91–33 on winners spread MAE 9.5 124 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Wichita State @ Temple +1.2 150.1 57% 85–91 ✓
Iowa @ Wisconsin +5.8 160.6 65% 85–116 ✓
Stonehill @ Mercyhurst -2.9 134.2 38% 69–76 ✗
Le Moyne @ Long Island University +2.3 141.8 65% 62–78 ✓
Chicago State @ Wagner +7.3 125.8 73% 64–52 ✗
Central Connecticut @ Saint Francis -5.2 140.0 27% 74–59 ✓
Marist @ Iona -2.7 133.2 36% 70–65 ✓
Manhattan @ Siena +2.1 142.5 62% 95–103 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Saint Peter's +2.6 133.7 56% 59–46 ✗
Michigan State @ Ohio State +5.3 150.8 55% 69–62 ✗
Xavier @ Georgetown +1.5 144.0 62% 63–69 ✓
Creighton @ Marquette +12.8 143.4 87% 71–79 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Saint Louis +0.6 148.5 50% 57–73 ✓
Nevada @ New Mexico +3.9 148.4 73% 81–82 ✓
Florida @ Kentucky +1.6 167.0 63% 100–106 ✓
Georgia @ Ole Miss +5.8 142.0 70% 51–63 ✓
Oklahoma State @ West Virginia +12.4 140.5 85% 50–69 ✓
Boston College @ Georgia Tech +7.2 146.8 76% 64–85 ✓
NC State @ Wake Forest +2.1 134.1 63% 59–77 ✓
North Carolina @ Notre Dame -2.4 157.7 39% 74–73 ✓
Richmond @ Massachusetts +3.7 149.9 63% 72–64 ✗
Dayton @ George Washington -4.9 140.3 30% 62–82 ✗
DePaul @ Villanova +7.3 149.6 78% 56–100 ✓
William & Mary @ Stony Brook -4.0 149.6 34% 83–76 ✓
Hofstra @ Northeastern +4.4 133.7 65% 55–37 ✗
Toledo @ Western Michigan +0.5 149.2 51% 76–70 ✗
Arkansas @ Tennessee +13.7 137.2 81% 52–76 ✓
Vermont @ New Hampshire -5.7 128.1 23% 60–40 ✓
Texas State @ App State -1.0 131.9 50% 61–72 ✗
Milwaukee @ Detroit Mercy -5.7 143.1 26% 64–56 ✓
Green Bay @ Northern Kentucky +10.0 140.6 85% 60–78 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Queens University -3.1 142.8 40% 83–92 ✗
Chattanooga @ The Citadel -9.7 141.9 15% 81–68 ✓
Buffalo @ Miami (OH) +11.4 147.6 88% 79–93 ✓
Baylor @ Iowa State +5.7 154.1 72% 55–74 ✓
BYU @ Houston +11.2 130.9 73% 55–86 ✓
UCLA @ Nebraska +0.8 134.4 58% 58–66 ✓
South Carolina @ Mississippi State +12.4 143.2 85% 50–85 ✓
High Point @ UNC Asheville -0.3 149.4 48% 99–103 ✗
Presbyterian @ Gardner-Webb +2.5 146.3 66% 61–63 ✓
Charlotte @ Rice +6.7 139.7 76% 55–68 ✓
Tulsa @ UAB +10.0 157.7 81% 51–83 ✓
Miami @ Virginia Tech +1.7 145.1 57% 85–86 ✓
VCU @ Loyola Chicago -4.8 139.9 35% 84–65 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Fordham -8.2 137.7 22% 86–66 ✓
Duquesne @ Davidson +6.8 132.7 77% 71–77 ✓
George Mason @ Rhode Island +1.7 140.6 67% 59–62 ✓
Indiana State @ Evansville -1.9 147.1 39% 66–62 ✓
Stetson @ West Georgia +7.4 145.3 67% 78–62 ✗
Bellarmine @ Central Arkansas +5.6 147.0 74% 65–71 ✓
Maine @ Bryant -0.1 147.9 53% 55–81 ✗
UMBC @ Binghamton +1.1 148.9 55% 82–87 ✓
Butler @ St. John's +11.0 146.1 85% 62–70 ✓
UL Monroe @ Coastal Carolina +6.7 136.3 69% 51–70 ✓
Towson @ Charleston +8.3 139.8 78% 69–77 ✓
Drexel @ North Carolina A&T -4.1 143.1 40% 68–59 ✓
Lipscomb @ North Florida -6.2 156.3 25% 96–64 ✓
St. Thomas @ North Dakota -8.0 156.0 22% 88–80 ✓
Omaha @ North Dakota State +13.9 150.1 86% 85–80 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Eastern Michigan +9.6 147.5 81% 71–75 ✓
Ball State @ Kent State +8.5 133.4 73% 75–67 ✗
Western Kentucky @ Florida International -2.8 151.0 43% 66–85 ✗
Duke @ SMU -3.4 143.8 32% 89–62 ✓
Arizona @ Cincinnati +1.1 140.7 45% 72–67 ✗
Jackson State @ Alcorn State +0.9 137.0 45% 72–69 ✗
South Alabama @ Georgia Southern -6.0 140.0 27% 76–47 ✓
Robert Morris @ Oakland +4.2 141.0 66% 79–71 ✗
IU Indianapolis @ Cleveland State +8.5 141.2 80% 61–67 ✓
Austin Peay @ Jacksonville +5.1 134.6 71% 44–68 ✓
Samford @ Western Carolina -14.7 154.7 13% 88–69 ✓
McNeese @ East Texas A&M -14.4 134.2 13% 75–56 ✓
Missouri @ Auburn +16.9 155.5 87% 68–84 ✓
Kansas State @ TCU +5.4 143.9 78% 62–63 ✓
Louisville @ Virginia -4.3 123.3 35% 70–50 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Norfolk State +15.4 139.0 90% 59–81 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Valparaiso -2.7 148.6 43% 73–80 ✗
San Diego State @ Boise State +2.5 134.6 63% 76–68 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Alabama State +23.7 139.0 91% 55–84 ✓
UMass Lowell @ UAlbany +0.4 155.4 44% 73–69 ✗
Weber State @ Northern Arizona +2.7 144.8 65% 77–80 ✓
Portland State @ Sacramento State -4.6 136.7 36% 53–56 ✗
Idaho State @ Northern Colorado +5.8 149.1 70% 92–93 ✓
Southern Miss @ Old Dominion +0.5 142.1 49% 71–74 ✓
Troy @ Marshall -1.6 137.8 42% 58–57 ✓
Arkansas State @ James Madison -1.1 148.0 43% 62–67 ✗
Monmouth @ Delaware +4.8 153.2 63% 64–84 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Utah Valley +7.5 133.8 80% 53–64 ✓
Furman @ UNC Greensboro +0.8 133.2 47% 67–84 ✓
Wofford @ East Tennessee State +5.1 139.9 73% 81–78 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ New Mexico State -1.7 138.2 49% 48–78 ✗
Morehead State @ Tennessee Tech +3.3 141.1 63% 55–74 ✓
Winthrop @ Radford +1.8 149.4 59% 67–87 ✓
South Carolina State @ Morgan State -7.6 149.0 21% 86–72 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Coppin State -5.2 134.1 32% 61–63 ✗
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ SE Louisiana -0.3 138.3 51% 80–71 ✓
Mercer @ VMI +0.7 153.5 54% 70–67 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ UT Martin +0.9 140.2 58% 63–66 ✓
Little Rock @ Tennessee State -4.3 142.6 36% 86–95 ✗
Lindenwood @ SIU Edwardsville +8.0 140.5 73% 47–58 ✓
Western Illinois @ Eastern Illinois +2.9 136.9 56% 75–67 ✗
Nicholls @ Northwestern State +3.7 137.3 63% 66–68 ✓
Vanderbilt @ LSU +1.9 156.0 47% 80–72 ✗
UIC @ Belmont +2.5 154.9 62% 87–92 ✓
Wyoming @ Air Force -4.7 129.3 29% 70–65 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Alabama A&M +6.0 156.6 82% 79–89 ✓
Montana @ Idaho +0.2 148.9 52% 73–71 ✗
Montana State @ Eastern Washington +0.4 147.7 52% 63–68 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Kennesaw State +0.4 151.3 56% 71–83 ✓
Grambling @ Prairie View A&M +2.5 146.0 63% 55–73 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ North Alabama +4.9 151.7 70% 67–88 ✓
Oklahoma @ Alabama +8.8 161.6 78% 79–107 ✓
Colorado @ Arizona State +6.4 140.2 75% 61–81 ✓
UTSA @ Tulane +4.9 150.7 72% 63–92 ✓
Syracuse @ Florida State +10.1 156.0 81% 74–90 ✓
San José State @ UNLV +8.8 141.0 82% 73–79 ✓
Southern @ Texas Southern -2.4 144.4 37% 67–58 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ LSU New Orleans -6.8 155.4 25% 76–64 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Stephen F. Austin +3.0 131.7 56% 55–49 ✗
UC Davis @ Cal State Northridge +10.9 145.7 85% 61–73 ✓
San Diego @ Oregon State +17.0 140.6 87% 54–81 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Kansas City +8.5 138.0 80% 67–90 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Liberty +8.7 139.2 79% 63–73 ✓
Stanford @ Pittsburgh +14.6 150.9 87% 68–83 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Florida A&M -4.3 142.9 32% 62–55 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.