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Baseline Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
12–9 on winners
spread MAE 6.7
21 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+3.3 | 138.8 | 69% | 70–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.6 | 133.0 | 89% | 59–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.4 | 146.7 | 62% | 67–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.8 | 140.5 | 65% | 80–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.9 | 140.0 | 59% | 56–54 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.5 | 150.9 | 80% | 76–85 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.8 | 136.7 | 34% | 87–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.1 | 133.4 | 76% | 56–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.8 | 143.2 | 33% | 54–55 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.6 | 132.6 | 57% | 69–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.0 | 139.7 | 48% | 72–65 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.6 | 144.5 | 36% | 82–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.1 | 140.5 | 37% | 76–78 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.3 | 146.0 | 60% | 65–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.8 | 150.0 | 79% | 72–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.6 | 131.3 | 60% | 57–42 | ✗ |
|
|
+15.0 | 132.2 | 88% | 64–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.7 | 134.0 | 85% | 46–43 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.0 | 144.5 | 66% | 78–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.9 | 143.1 | 56% | 66–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.1 | 151.1 | 61% | 66–62 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.