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Baseline Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
9–6 on winners
spread MAE 10.7
15 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Northwestern State
@
Nicholls
|
+1.9 | 134.4 | 61% | 47–61 | ✓ |
William & Mary
@
Hofstra
|
+3.0 | 145.3 | 62% | 61–92 | ✓ |
San Francisco
@
Oregon State
|
-2.4 | 142.9 | 40% | 77–78 | ✗ |
Fairfield
@
Siena
|
+1.4 | 133.8 | 57% | 61–76 | ✓ |
Georgia Southern
@
Marshall
|
+1.4 | 162.1 | 57% | 82–78 | ✗ |
North Dakota
@
North Dakota State
|
+10.8 | 145.3 | 83% | 62–70 | ✓ |
Idaho
@
Montana State
|
+1.8 | 142.6 | 57% | 78–74 | ✗ |
Pacific
@
Santa Clara
|
+8.6 | 140.3 | 83% | 68–76 | ✓ |
Alcorn State
@
Alabama State
|
+5.1 | 142.0 | 72% | 77–65 | ✗ |
Campbell
@
Monmouth
|
+0.5 | 145.6 | 52% | 64–74 | ✓ |
LSU New Orleans
@
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
|
+0.8 | 140.1 | 55% | 61–74 | ✓ |
Northern Kentucky
@
Wright State
|
+2.3 | 150.5 | 60% | 90–103 | ✓ |
Georgia Southern
@
Troy
|
+3.8 | 155.0 | 66% | 61–77 | ✓ |
Furman
@
East Tennessee State
|
+1.9 | 140.4 | 61% | 76–61 | ✗ |
Northern Colorado
@
Montana
|
-3.4 | 149.1 | 34% | 89–95 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.