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Baseline Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
16–7 on winners
spread MAE 6.2
23 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+12.3 | 132.9 | 88% | 52–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.7 | 128.5 | 69% | 65–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.3 | 136.8 | 70% | 68–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+20.9 | 145.2 | 89% | 56–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.2 | 145.3 | 66% | 70–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.5 | 153.6 | 57% | 79–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.4 | 143.6 | 63% | 76–71 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.5 | 153.5 | 40% | 79–83 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.3 | 145.5 | 74% | 56–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.3 | 137.9 | 69% | 64–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.2 | 141.4 | 82% | 66–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.5 | 155.0 | 72% | 69–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.0 | 137.0 | 59% | 70–60 | ✗ |
|
|
+12.0 | 144.3 | 86% | 69–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.4 | 149.0 | 57% | 75–72 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.0 | 136.7 | 76% | 70–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.2 | 160.4 | 84% | 91–105 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.8 | 137.6 | 87% | 54–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.6 | 148.5 | 58% | 95–89 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.1 | 134.6 | 70% | 69–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.3 | 132.4 | 74% | 58–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.5 | 149.9 | 68% | 63–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.5 | 141.1 | 75% | 66–76 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.