Then she opened up a book of poems and handed it to me, written by an Italian poet from the thirteenth century. "Tangled Up in Blue" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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12–4 on winners spread MAE 12.4 32 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Pennsylvania +15.5 136.9 88% 84–85 ✓
Stony Brook @ Central Michigan +17.1 148.3 87% 73–72 ✗
Charleston Southern @ North Florida +15.0 146.2 87% 66–90 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Wake Forest — — — 64–80 —
Southern Miss @ UAB -1.9 136.8 54% 84–98 ✗
Jacksonville @ Florida — — — 60–81 —
Bucknell @ Southern Indiana +5.4 149.5 61% 75–69 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Loyola Chicago — — — 65–87 —
Milwaukee @ Northern Iowa — — — 68–87 —
Prairie View A&M @ DePaul — — — 59–92 —
Montana State @ Wisconsin — — — 67–79 —
Southern @ Iowa +18.0 149.4 87% 74–89 ✓
Omaha @ Stetson — — — 79–76 —
Niagara @ Michigan State — — — 60–96 —
Florida A&M @ SMU +28.1 150.8 90% 73–102 ✓
Illinois State @ North Dakota State — — — 77–68 —
Jacksonville State @ Air Force — — — 67–73 —
Chattanooga @ Saint Mary's +13.0 139.6 84% 74–86 ✓
Idaho State @ USC +14.9 128.6 83% 69–75 ✓
Cal Poly @ California +12.5 149.9 76% 73–91 ✓
UC Davis @ Idaho — — — 79–75 —
Central Arkansas @ Utah +25.3 144.3 89% 63–98 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ North Carolina Central +5.4 137.6 72% 88–82 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ Stanford +15.7 146.6 85% 53–80 ✓
Army @ Duke +17.5 141.8 87% 58–100 ✓
Temple @ Monmouth -0.1 138.8 37% 103–74 ✓
Saint Peter's @ UMass Lowell — — — 74–81 —
Samford @ Cornell — — — 86–88 —
IU Indianapolis @ Xavier — — — 80–94 —
UMBC @ Penn State — — — 54–103 —
Boston College @ VCU +1.2 137.1 58% 55–80 ✓
Austin Peay @ Butler — — — 68–66 —

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.