The tide is high, but I'm holding on. "The Tide is High" - Blondie
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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38–9 on winners spread MAE 7.5 47 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Marshall @ Elon +8.8 140.9 80% 59–73 ✓
Pepperdine @ Santa Clara +12.0 150.8 86% 80–91 ✓
Jackson State @ California Baptist +12.3 141.6 86% 73–79 ✓
Pacific @ Saint Mary's +17.8 140.5 89% 60–70 ✓
Washington State @ Portland -11.2 150.1 15% 89–73 ✓
Fresno State @ UNLV +11.1 142.9 86% 77–87 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ San Francisco +12.8 136.2 86% 55–70 ✓
Indiana State @ Ohio State +22.3 158.1 89% 83–103 ✓
Northwestern State @ Texas +21.8 141.5 90% 53–77 ✓
Stetson @ Florida +33.4 150.8 91% 45–85 ✓
Hofstra @ Quinnipiac +1.4 136.5 59% 69–75 ✓
Stonehill @ Lafayette +3.5 140.0 64% 70–65 ✗
Navy @ William & Mary +9.0 154.9 69% 76–82 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Penn State +27.6 145.2 91% 66–86 ✓
Harvard @ Iona +2.5 138.5 57% 67–61 ✗
Northeastern @ Northwestern +13.3 134.8 86% 60–85 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Oklahoma +26.9 158.8 91% 67–89 ✓
Chicago State @ Illinois +35.2 148.5 91% 64–117 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Northern Iowa +14.3 148.6 88% 67–78 ✓
Stony Brook @ UAlbany +9.4 146.6 79% 70–77 ✓
Binghamton @ Marist +5.8 134.9 73% 51–69 ✓
Boston University @ Maine +6.2 136.7 71% 59–56 ✗
Le Moyne @ Niagara +3.7 141.4 65% 69–88 ✓
Norfolk State @ High Point +5.8 142.7 72% 77–74 ✗
Morgan State @ Minnesota +16.7 145.0 89% 68–90 ✓
South Carolina State @ Georgia +21.9 141.4 90% 72–79 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Youngstown State +8.1 139.6 83% 64–73 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Milwaukee +12.3 152.7 87% 81–88 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Robert Morris +0.9 134.7 55% 93–97 ✓
Longwood @ SMU +18.2 149.5 88% 82–98 ✓
South Dakota State @ Alabama +16.7 157.4 88% 82–105 ✓
Belmont @ Drake +10.2 139.7 79% 46–65 ✓
Buffalo @ Temple +14.3 145.6 87% 71–91 ✓
UTSA @ Army +1.2 158.9 62% 75–78 ✓
NJIT @ Washington +18.0 134.3 88% 53–90 ✓
Wright State @ Cleveland State +1.0 143.7 57% 64–78 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Green Bay -7.5 156.2 31% 83–67 ✓
Missouri State @ Evansville -7.1 139.3 27% 40–57 ✗
Valparaiso @ Bradley +14.2 151.1 88% 75–81 ✓
UMBC @ American University +3.6 148.5 67% 96–93 ✗
Winthrop @ Indiana +14.8 157.3 88% 68–77 ✓
Weber State @ Oregon +20.2 143.8 90% 49–89 ✓
St. Thomas @ UC Riverside -0.7 148.5 45% 79–81 ✗
UT Arlington @ Texas State +8.2 146.2 79% 80–72 ✗
UIC @ Illinois State +5.3 150.1 72% 73–67 ✗
Florida A&M @ Tarleton State +3.4 132.9 69% 60–70 ✓
Toledo @ Purdue +19.3 152.1 89% 64–83 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.