That's where you'll find me, along with the lovers muggers and thieves - but they're cool people. "Dirty Water" - The Standells
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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84–37 on winners spread MAE 9.7 121 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Long Island University @ Stonehill +4.3 133.0 63% 70–60 ✗
Minnesota @ Wisconsin +16.1 145.4 88% 59–80 ✓
Mercyhurst @ Saint Francis +1.5 136.8 55% 59–73 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Le Moyne +0.8 151.5 48% 91–86 ✗
Wagner @ Central Connecticut +12.3 125.0 79% 62–57 ✗
Siena @ Quinnipiac +3.6 139.9 65% 53–72 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Manhattan +0.3 151.7 44% 75–66 ✗
Rider @ Canisius -2.2 140.7 31% 67–85 ✗
Iona @ Fairfield +0.0 142.6 49% 64–68 ✓
UCLA @ Maryland +6.1 142.1 78% 61–79 ✓
Central Michigan @ Toledo +5.5 148.6 75% 67–69 ✓
Notre Dame @ Duke +19.7 138.3 90% 78–86 ✓
USC @ Illinois +17.1 153.7 88% 82–72 ✗
Louisville @ Pittsburgh +6.0 150.6 66% 82–78 ✗
La Salle @ St. Bonaventure +13.5 138.8 87% 83–82 ✗
Brown @ Yale +11.7 144.5 87% 58–79 ✓
Creighton @ Butler +0.6 142.1 51% 80–76 ✗
Auburn @ South Carolina -16.1 148.1 14% 66–63 ✓
Belmont @ Indiana State +0.8 165.6 52% 84–79 ✗
San Diego State @ New Mexico +1.6 142.6 58% 48–62 ✓
Holy Cross @ Lafayette +2.0 135.8 56% 65–82 ✓
NJIT @ UMass Lowell +13.1 142.1 88% 62–70 ✓
Binghamton @ New Hampshire -6.4 138.6 29% 72–79 ✗
James Madison @ App State +0.9 133.8 56% 66–86 ✓
Charleston @ Monmouth -6.5 149.7 29% 73–84 ✗
UNC Wilmington @ Hofstra +0.1 131.2 51% 63–66 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Ohio +16.5 143.8 90% 70–108 ✓
Iowa State @ Texas Tech +2.1 147.8 46% 85–84 ✗
UConn @ Georgetown -0.8 141.5 49% 68–60 ✓
Kansas @ Cincinnati -2.0 129.3 37% 54–40 ✓
East Carolina @ Memphis +16.4 149.2 89% 70–74 ✓
Radford @ South Carolina Upstate -6.3 145.8 26% 80–67 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Presbyterian +0.2 146.8 51% 96–87 ✗
Longwood @ Winthrop +1.9 154.2 64% 76–95 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Northwestern State +9.1 136.1 80% 67–75 ✓
BYU @ TCU +0.7 136.2 61% 67–71 ✓
Temple @ Rice +1.1 139.8 57% 73–70 ✗
South Florida @ Tulane +2.9 148.0 66% 70–73 ✓
Florida State @ Clemson +6.2 148.0 75% 57–77 ✓
Massachusetts @ George Mason +13.0 138.3 87% 70–77 ✓
Fordham @ Davidson +10.8 145.4 86% 64–74 ✓
Boston University @ Colgate +1.6 127.1 54% 50–87 ✓
Army @ Lehigh +4.4 144.1 66% 74–69 ✗
Cornell @ Columbia +1.8 157.5 56% 94–83 ✗
Princeton @ Harvard -3.8 140.6 37% 68–64 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Dartmouth +5.6 142.5 79% 70–73 ✓
UAlbany @ Maine +2.5 142.8 65% 66–87 ✓
Cleveland State @ Youngstown State +3.4 137.8 56% 80–72 ✗
North Carolina A&T @ William & Mary +11.2 159.2 85% 78–81 ✓
Towson @ Drexel +3.8 125.4 59% 93–82 ✗
Delaware @ Hampton +0.8 148.1 57% 77–83 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Florida Gulf Coast +12.2 144.1 85% 71–77 ✓
South Dakota State @ Omaha -2.6 150.1 40% 80–87 ✗
Bowling Green @ Ball State +5.5 148.7 70% 69–91 ✓
Syracuse @ Boston College +0.4 149.5 54% 79–71 ✗
Loyola Chicago @ Saint Joseph's +6.2 142.9 74% 57–93 ✓
Bradley @ UIC +0.5 149.5 52% 61–60 ✗
San José State @ Air Force -3.1 134.5 34% 69–62 ✓
Old Dominion @ South Alabama +17.6 132.6 89% 71–63 ✗
Texas State @ Southern Miss -3.4 142.5 35% 88–92 ✗
North Dakota State @ Denver -12.5 155.0 16% 69–50 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Western Kentucky +4.1 152.2 70% 69–85 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Missouri +4.2 153.5 70% 66–75 ✓
Western Michigan @ Miami (OH) +9.6 147.5 81% 71–91 ✓
Akron @ Eastern Michigan -4.5 152.5 34% 105–81 ✓
Florida International @ Sam Houston +4.5 150.8 65% 74–81 ✓
Florida @ Arkansas -2.2 146.8 44% 71–63 ✓
UNLV @ Colorado State +5.5 140.5 73% 62–84 ✓
Wichita State @ UTSA -2.6 157.3 39% 75–88 ✗
Georgia Tech @ SMU +12.0 152.7 85% 71–93 ✓
Virginia @ Stanford +5.1 131.5 69% 65–88 ✓
North Carolina @ NC State -3.9 152.5 36% 63–61 ✓
Morgan State @ Howard +9.9 164.2 85% 95–100 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ North Carolina Central +8.8 148.0 81% 69–88 ✓
Delaware State @ South Carolina State +8.3 145.5 80% 76–75 ✗
Valparaiso @ Murray State +6.5 148.6 78% 47–58 ✓
Bucknell @ American University +0.8 137.2 52% 58–68 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Alcorn State +4.5 146.0 77% 52–62 ✓
Vermont @ Bryant +3.5 138.0 64% 53–73 ✓
Xavier @ DePaul -2.6 150.3 38% 77–63 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Sacramento State -2.9 132.1 35% 65–54 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Marshall +6.1 145.8 77% 69–81 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia State +0.7 138.0 52% 74–79 ✓
Green Bay @ Milwaukee +11.8 146.6 88% 59–70 ✓
Hawai'i @ Cal State Fullerton -7.1 134.1 23% 95–86 ✓
North Alabama @ Stetson -9.6 148.9 19% 92–64 ✓
Jacksonville @ Eastern Kentucky +0.1 142.4 48% 82–75 ✗
California Baptist @ Utah Valley +5.5 135.5 73% 69–75 ✓
The Citadel @ East Tennessee State +16.7 141.2 90% 52–70 ✓
Coppin State @ Norfolk State +16.5 135.9 91% 69–92 ✓
Alabama State @ Jackson State -0.5 148.0 47% 70–77 ✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +4.4 153.6 71% 74–79 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Houston Christian -0.7 134.3 46% 76–81 ✗
Arkansas State @ Troy +1.1 139.6 55% 84–78 ✗
Tennessee State @ Western Illinois +3.0 147.0 60% 72–52 ✗
UT Martin @ Lindenwood -0.7 133.1 44% 81–82 ✗
Morehead State @ Southeast Missouri State +5.9 135.8 70% 67–56 ✗
Navy @ Loyola Maryland +4.7 143.2 65% 74–75 ✓
Nicholls @ McNeese +12.8 140.3 87% 71–80 ✓
Idaho @ Portland State +1.5 142.3 62% 63–75 ✓
Seton Hall @ Providence +10.4 133.3 81% 85–91 ✓
West Georgia @ Lipscomb +18.2 141.3 89% 67–86 ✓
Queens University @ Austin Peay -0.5 143.2 42% 67–60 ✓
Long Beach State @ UC Davis +5.1 134.1 72% 84–73 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ SIU Edwardsville +3.5 131.2 66% 59–67 ✓
Wake Forest @ Miami -1.4 140.7 37% 88–78 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Grambling -4.4 133.6 29% 65–59 ✓
Tennessee @ Texas -2.4 137.2 36% 74–70 ✓
Houston @ Kansas State -14.7 132.2 13% 87–57 ✓
Oklahoma @ Georgia +6.3 147.3 72% 62–72 ✓
LSU @ Ole Miss +7.2 144.7 81% 65–77 ✓
Virginia Tech @ California +6.2 146.6 75% 71–68 ✗
Rhode Island @ Richmond -5.5 139.4 28% 67–64 ✓
Evansville @ Drake +14.5 123.8 85% 40–63 ✓
Florida A&M @ Southern +9.5 139.8 86% 57–91 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Montana +0.6 160.5 54% 81–57 ✗
SE Louisiana @ LSU New Orleans -6.2 142.5 26% 91–71 ✓
Oakland @ Northern Kentucky +2.5 133.1 58% 68–53 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ Samford +5.4 149.7 68% 69–76 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Middle Tennessee +3.8 146.9 65% 64–81 ✓
North Florida @ Bellarmine -7.0 159.9 25% 98–83 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.