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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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39–12 on winners spread MAE 10.3 51 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Iowa @ Michigan State +7.0 134.2 67% 52–71 ✓
Tennessee @ Syracuse -3.1 143.7 39% 60–62 ✗
New Mexico State @ South Alabama -1.4 133.0 49% 75–77 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ UNC Asheville +5.2 140.5 69% 77–82 ✓
Jackson State @ Kennesaw State +15.9 153.9 90% 73–88 ✓
Cornell @ George Mason +11.5 151.2 78% 81–99 ✓
Georgia State @ Mercer +17.7 146.0 89% 67–78 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ North Florida -2.1 144.7 39% 72–63 ✓
Florida A&M @ Jacksonville +13.3 133.5 86% 82–85 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Butler +18.3 142.2 88% 68–84 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ East Carolina +4.7 131.2 55% 56–68 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Charlotte +4.3 141.8 71% 57–74 ✓
Lehigh @ Binghamton -6.1 141.3 32% 71–80 ✗
Brown @ Rhode Island +16.1 134.2 86% 56–66 ✓
William & Mary @ Duquesne -3.5 157.9 45% 83–79 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Dayton +4.7 142.9 67% 71–88 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Providence +21.5 159.6 91% 64–94 ✓
Virginia Tech @ South Carolina +5.3 147.1 72% 86–83 ✗
Oklahoma @ Wake Forest +11.2 154.2 80% 86–68 ✗
Texas A&M @ Pittsburgh -2.7 143.2 40% 81–73 ✓
Florida @ Duke +16.6 152.2 88% 66–67 ✓
Western Illinois @ Drake +13.5 136.0 86% 57–108 ✓
Grambling @ Tulane +5.0 149.3 69% 63–65 ✓
Winthrop @ Long Island University -4.1 149.1 37% 94–92 ✓
Purdue @ Rutgers -14.5 143.7 21% 81–65 ✓
Houston Christian @ North Texas +7.1 129.6 69% 75–77 ✓
Wagner @ Maryland +5.1 151.4 71% 63–89 ✓
Morehead State @ Murray State +15.5 153.0 87% 52–84 ✓
Washington State @ Bradley +8.9 152.4 81% 60–64 ✓
UT Arlington @ Arkansas State +2.9 142.5 53% 63–83 ✓
Lindenwood @ Northern Illinois +5.8 144.9 72% 99–64 ✗
Valparaiso @ Marquette +8.4 140.4 75% 72–75 ✓
Sacramento State @ Baylor +17.9 149.0 88% 88–110 ✓
Central Michigan @ Loyola Chicago +0.3 139.1 42% 72–83 ✓
Sam Houston @ Oklahoma State +11.9 161.2 84% 83–93 ✓
UConn @ Kansas +5.0 138.9 72% 61–56 ✗
Stetson @ Grand Canyon +16.7 138.3 87% 45–67 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Pepperdine +5.3 133.4 68% 71–63 ✗
Nicholls @ Creighton +14.2 134.4 86% 76–96 ✓
Miami @ Ole Miss -1.1 145.0 47% 75–66 ✓
Georgia @ Florida State +1.1 169.0 56% 107–73 ✗
Missouri @ Notre Dame +1.2 143.3 47% 71–76 ✓
North Carolina @ Kentucky +11.8 153.3 84% 67–64 ✗
USC @ Oregon -6.4 157.3 22% 82–77 ✓
UC San Diego @ Nevada +0.8 153.2 52% 70–76 ✓
Utah @ California +14.8 153.3 87% 72–79 ✓
Saint Louis @ Loyola Marymount -3.5 141.9 38% 91–70 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ UIC +15.7 152.4 88% 63–62 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ Lipscomb +14.3 146.3 88% 80–83 ✓
Northeastern @ Holy Cross -3.5 136.1 37% 59–76 ✗
Wright State @ Youngstown State +1.8 143.2 53% 68–69 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.