They smelled of pubs and Wormwood Scrubs and too many right wing meetings. "Down in the Tube Station at Midnight" - The Jam
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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36–19 on winners spread MAE 8.3 55 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Wichita State @ Memphis +13.3 152.5 89% 53–61 ✓
Bryant @ New Hampshire -12.5 145.9 14% 95–76 ✓
NJIT @ Vermont +8.4 127.7 85% 64–68 ✓
Marshall @ Georgia State -3.6 143.7 34% 92–79 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Charleston +2.3 147.2 64% 85–83 ✗
Campbell @ Stony Brook -2.7 133.5 37% 79–54 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Towson +9.5 141.6 83% 67–83 ✓
Delaware @ Hofstra +2.1 140.3 65% 68–93 ✓
Drexel @ Northeastern +2.1 132.2 62% 61–70 ✓
Monmouth @ Elon +10.5 137.9 86% 71–83 ✓
North Florida @ Queens University +5.6 161.8 74% 90–81 ✗
Lipscomb @ North Alabama -1.6 142.9 45% 64–74 ✗
Jacksonville @ West Georgia -9.0 137.3 20% 79–62 ✓
Stetson @ Eastern Kentucky +10.1 152.9 86% 67–66 ✗
Samford @ Chattanooga +0.5 157.2 53% 73–69 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Siena +3.4 139.5 65% 68–82 ✓
Merrimack @ Saint Peter's -0.4 121.0 45% 48–37 ✓
Iona @ Rider +0.5 132.9 52% 73–67 ✗
Sacred Heart @ Canisius -3.3 146.9 33% 93–84 ✓
Fairfield @ Manhattan +5.6 147.2 71% 87–84 ✗
Western Kentucky @ Louisiana Tech +3.1 142.2 68% 67–77 ✓
Austin Peay @ Central Arkansas -1.0 136.3 42% 73–71 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Sam Houston -2.8 150.1 35% 77–75 ✓
Tarleton State @ Abilene Christian +3.0 127.6 63% 56–67 ✓
Seattle U @ UT Arlington -0.8 143.0 47% 56–65 ✗
South Dakota @ North Dakota +1.4 170.8 55% 102–93 ✗
South Dakota State @ Kansas City -4.1 140.8 34% 65–64 ✓
Denver @ Oral Roberts +3.0 148.2 63% 70–68 ✗
St. Thomas @ Omaha -1.6 153.9 45% 78–89 ✗
Grand Canyon @ Southern Utah -8.9 145.7 24% 74–59 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Tennessee State +0.9 146.0 58% 77–89 ✓
Southern Indiana @ SIU Edwardsville +6.6 134.9 77% 76–82 ✓
Little Rock @ Western Illinois -5.0 132.7 26% 62–51 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Lindenwood -2.4 137.6 38% 68–72 ✗
Maryland @ Illinois +7.9 155.6 78% 91–70 ✗
Northern Colorado @ Idaho -3.4 154.1 34% 76–77 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Eastern Washington +1.9 140.7 61% 70–61 ✗
App State @ Arkansas State +5.8 132.3 72% 55–65 ✓
Hawai'i @ UC Davis +0.1 133.9 53% 66–68 ✓
San Francisco @ Saint Mary's +8.7 136.8 80% 51–71 ✓
Morehead State @ Eastern Illinois -3.3 129.8 32% 73–66 ✓
Kennesaw State @ New Mexico State +5.7 143.3 75% 69–56 ✗
Jacksonville State @ UTEP +2.8 140.7 68% 73–66 ✗
Pepperdine @ Oregon State +14.8 146.1 89% 63–83 ✓
Idaho State @ Sacramento State -7.9 132.3 23% 71–75 ✗
Weber State @ Portland State +5.3 139.1 71% 56–74 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ UC San Diego +11.9 136.7 87% 63–77 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Cal State Fullerton -2.8 142.4 39% 71–68 ✓
UC Irvine @ UC Riverside -7.2 140.3 25% 80–84 ✗
Long Beach State @ Cal State Northridge +13.6 146.9 88% 76–86 ✓
San Diego @ Portland +1.8 145.6 59% 82–92 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Pacific -5.7 140.4 27% 73–68 ✓
Washington State @ Santa Clara +5.7 154.9 73% 65–93 ✓
Utah Valley @ California Baptist -0.1 137.7 48% 74–69 ✓
Toledo @ Bowling Green -1.3 154.6 42% 84–71 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.