I'll write on your tombstone, "I thank you for dinner." "Bungle in the Jungle" - Jethro Tull
← All models

Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →
31–9 on winners spread MAE 10.0 40 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Duke @ Miami -17.8 151.2 14% 97–60 ✓
Florida @ Georgia -4.9 145.8 28% 83–88 ✗
Providence @ Marquette +12.0 146.0 87% 52–82 ✓
Army @ Lafayette +1.8 139.7 60% 65–81 ✓
Baylor @ Cincinnati +0.9 140.8 56% 67–69 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Pittsburgh +10.8 144.7 85% 73–67 ✗
VCU @ Richmond -14.3 136.4 14% 78–60 ✓
Saint Louis @ Davidson +2.0 142.7 63% 57–56 ✗
Northwestern @ Minnesota -0.0 133.5 51% 75–63 ✓
Old Dominion @ Marshall +10.1 145.5 84% 66–83 ✓
App State @ Georgia Southern -1.8 136.4 43% 59–61 ✗
Toledo @ Kent State +6.4 146.8 76% 65–105 ✓
Ohio @ Western Michigan -4.7 150.5 30% 73–82 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Miami (OH) +13.9 149.2 87% 58–87 ✓
Buffalo @ Central Michigan +12.1 147.9 87% 69–73 ✓
Akron @ Ball State -5.0 154.5 27% 87–82 ✓
James Madison @ UL Monroe -10.3 142.6 16% 85–79 ✓
Iowa State @ Oklahoma State -10.1 149.2 17% 68–74 ✗
Indiana State @ Murray State +5.7 148.9 73% 75–85 ✓
Illinois State @ Southern Illinois +0.4 144.7 50% 79–88 ✓
Troy @ Texas State -1.5 140.7 45% 74–69 ✓
Lindenwood @ Western Illinois +0.1 140.0 46% 81–86 ✓
Tennessee @ LSU -7.4 135.9 21% 65–59 ✓
Mississippi State @ Alabama +9.7 171.0 80% 73–111 ✓
Washington @ Wisconsin +14.1 153.6 88% 62–88 ✓
South Carolina @ Missouri +12.5 149.7 88% 71–101 ✓
Louisville @ Virginia Tech -10.7 142.2 16% 71–66 ✓
TCU @ West Virginia +4.8 130.2 68% 55–73 ✓
Colorado State @ Air Force -13.1 133.8 13% 77–55 ✓
Iowa @ Illinois +11.9 171.1 84% 61–81 ✓
UNLV @ San José State -2.0 138.4 40% 77–71 ✓
Wyoming @ Nevada +12.0 135.5 87% 61–84 ✓
New Mexico @ San Diego State +1.7 140.1 58% 65–73 ✓
Gonzaga @ Santa Clara -3.4 161.7 37% 95–76 ✓
Boston University @ Lehigh +1.7 131.6 59% 79–68 ✗
Mercer @ East Tennessee State +9.7 141.4 83% 58–59 ✓
Michigan State @ Maryland +5.4 148.8 69% 58–55 ✗
Presbyterian @ UNC Asheville +5.2 147.4 72% 64–59 ✗
Duquesne @ La Salle -2.1 138.0 41% 67–62 ✓
Georgetown @ UConn +9.5 140.9 82% 79–93 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.