Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -24.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | MIA +2000 DUKE -7500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +37 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -24.4 (-12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.2 (+3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -23.2 (-13.8) | 150.3 (+6.7) | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -15.7 (-21.3) | 152.0 (+5.0) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -17.8 (-19.2) | 151.2 (+5.8) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -19.7 (-17.3) | 152.8 (+4.2) | 13% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2025 | DUKE 89 – 54 MIA |
| Feb 22, 2024 | DUKE 84 – 55 MIA |
| Mar 11, 2023 | DUKE 85 – 78 MIA |
| Feb 7, 2023 | MIA 81 – 59 DUKE |
| Jan 21, 2023 | DUKE 68 – 66 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-24 | 35-4 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 19-1 |
| Home | 7-10 | 17-0 |
| Away | 0-10 | 10-1 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 8-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 83.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 62.8 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#174) | 26.8 (#1) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.18 (#277) | 3.91 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.12 (#253) | 5.03 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#287) | 0.652 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 48.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 38.3% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 57.6% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.8% | 44.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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