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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
5–4 on winners
spread MAE 9.4
9 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ole Miss
@
Iowa State
|
+3.0 | 145.1 | 63% | 91–78 | ✗ |
New Mexico
@
Michigan State
|
+5.2 | 143.7 | 70% | 63–71 | ✓ |
Jacksonville State
@
UC Irvine
|
+9.4 | 139.7 | 81% | 61–66 | ✓ |
Kent State
@
Stanford
|
+7.0 | 136.9 | 72% | 77–75 | ✗ |
UAB
@
Santa Clara
|
+10.9 | 161.3 | 83% | 88–84 | ✗ |
Oregon
@
Arizona
|
+2.6 | 149.0 | 61% | 83–87 | ✓ |
Incarnate Word
@
Jacksonville
|
+2.0 | 138.5 | 60% | 87–71 | ✗ |
Army
@
Florida Gulf Coast
|
+8.0 | 144.7 | 79% | 65–68 | ✓ |
Queens University
@
Cleveland State
|
+1.8 | 139.3 | 58% | 73–88 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.