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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
9–5 on winners
spread MAE 9.9
14 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
West Georgia
@
Troy
|
+10.3 | 149.4 | 85% | 93–89 | ✗ |
Iona
@
Delaware
|
+0.5 | 149.4 | 51% | 89–66 | ✗ |
North Alabama
@
Jacksonville State
|
+5.5 | 131.8 | 67% | 73–66 | ✗ |
Tarleton State
@
Cincinnati
|
+6.2 | 141.9 | 72% | 58–76 | ✓ |
Saint Francis
@
Xavier
|
+23.1 | 144.6 | 91% | 74–96 | ✓ |
UAB
@
Middle Tennessee
|
+3.2 | 146.2 | 61% | 61–76 | ✓ |
McNeese
@
Incarnate Word
|
-6.2 | 145.8 | 30% | 67–71 | ✗ |
Bowling Green
@
Kansas State
|
+7.6 | 150.1 | 76% | 82–66 | ✗ |
California Baptist
@
Colorado
|
+7.4 | 145.3 | 75% | 70–78 | ✓ |
Portland
@
Stanford
|
+13.3 | 149.6 | 87% | 72–94 | ✓ |
George Washington
@
Army
|
-9.5 | 157.5 | 18% | 84–70 | ✓ |
Charleston Southern
@
UT Martin
|
+9.8 | 143.4 | 82% | 56–73 | ✓ |
Campbell
@
Penn State
|
+13.8 | 148.9 | 88% | 76–87 | ✓ |
Stonehill
@
Bryant
|
+5.8 | 127.7 | 67% | 65–77 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.