Then she opened up a book of poems and handed it to me, written by an Italian poet from the thirteenth century. "Tangled Up in Blue" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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39–12 on winners spread MAE 10.4 51 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Iowa @ Michigan State +6.8 134.4 75% 52–71 ✓
Tennessee @ Syracuse -2.3 144.0 36% 60–62 ✗
New Mexico State @ South Alabama -2.5 131.8 39% 75–77 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ UNC Asheville +5.6 140.0 72% 77–82 ✓
Jackson State @ Kennesaw State +15.0 152.3 89% 73–88 ✓
Cornell @ George Mason +10.2 151.1 82% 81–99 ✓
Georgia State @ Mercer +15.8 144.6 89% 67–78 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ North Florida -1.9 144.6 40% 72–63 ✓
Florida A&M @ Jacksonville +11.6 133.9 86% 82–85 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Butler +17.8 142.2 89% 68–84 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ East Carolina +4.4 133.1 62% 56–68 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Charlotte +4.4 142.0 68% 57–74 ✓
Lehigh @ Binghamton -4.4 137.3 32% 71–80 ✗
Brown @ Rhode Island +14.4 134.9 88% 56–66 ✓
William & Mary @ Duquesne -2.5 158.4 39% 83–79 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Dayton +5.4 140.9 70% 71–88 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Providence +20.0 158.6 90% 64–94 ✓
Virginia Tech @ South Carolina +5.7 146.0 69% 86–83 ✗
Oklahoma @ Wake Forest +10.9 153.8 82% 86–68 ✗
Texas A&M @ Pittsburgh -1.3 143.4 42% 81–73 ✓
Florida @ Duke +15.7 148.2 87% 66–67 ✓
Western Illinois @ Drake +13.0 136.7 86% 57–108 ✓
Grambling @ Tulane +4.5 147.1 66% 63–65 ✓
Winthrop @ Long Island University -3.2 148.1 41% 94–92 ✓
Purdue @ Rutgers -11.2 141.5 18% 81–65 ✓
Houston Christian @ North Texas +6.6 130.0 70% 75–77 ✓
Wagner @ Maryland +4.4 148.4 68% 63–89 ✓
Morehead State @ Murray State +14.8 152.1 88% 52–84 ✓
Washington State @ Bradley +9.4 151.6 82% 60–64 ✓
UT Arlington @ Arkansas State +2.9 142.4 60% 63–83 ✓
Lindenwood @ Northern Illinois +5.6 144.8 71% 99–64 ✗
Valparaiso @ Marquette +8.3 138.7 78% 72–75 ✓
Sacramento State @ Baylor +16.4 148.8 89% 88–110 ✓
Central Michigan @ Loyola Chicago +0.0 136.2 41% 72–83 ✓
Sam Houston @ Oklahoma State +11.5 160.2 83% 83–93 ✓
UConn @ Kansas +4.4 137.0 63% 61–56 ✗
Stetson @ Grand Canyon +15.7 139.0 89% 45–67 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Pepperdine +4.9 133.6 67% 71–63 ✗
Nicholls @ Creighton +13.1 135.5 87% 76–96 ✓
Miami @ Ole Miss -0.8 144.4 45% 75–66 ✓
Georgia @ Florida State +2.7 165.7 55% 107–73 ✗
Missouri @ Notre Dame +1.1 142.7 49% 71–76 ✓
North Carolina @ Kentucky +11.9 152.2 82% 67–64 ✗
USC @ Oregon -7.1 156.6 24% 82–77 ✓
UC San Diego @ Nevada +0.0 151.1 46% 70–76 ✓
Utah @ California +15.3 151.0 88% 72–79 ✓
Saint Louis @ Loyola Marymount -3.2 140.7 39% 91–70 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ UIC +15.7 153.4 88% 63–62 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ Lipscomb +13.8 144.7 88% 80–83 ✓
Northeastern @ Holy Cross -3.5 135.9 36% 59–76 ✗
Wright State @ Youngstown State +2.0 142.2 61% 68–69 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.