I have got the sharpest knife, so I get the biggest slice. "Revolution Rock" - The Clash
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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37–10 on winners spread MAE 7.5 47 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Texas Tech @ Colorado -3.9 154.0 35% 73–71 ✓
San Diego @ Pacific +7.5 143.5 80% 70–77 ✓
Southern @ Florida A&M +1.0 148.0 55% 59–67 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Long Beach State +3.8 143.1 66% 75–81 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Cal State Fullerton +4.1 164.4 67% 79–86 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Lamar -0.4 136.9 49% 51–63 ✗
Campbell @ Elon +4.1 156.9 68% 82–83 ✓
Texas @ Alabama +12.3 169.1 86% 92–88 ✗
San Francisco @ Pepperdine -7.4 134.6 21% 80–60 ✓
Oregon State @ Portland +1.7 140.5 62% 76–82 ✓
Maryland @ UCLA +12.6 144.6 88% 55–67 ✓
San José State @ Grand Canyon +11.9 137.6 88% 58–76 ✓
St. Thomas @ Oral Roberts -6.2 142.6 24% 82–71 ✓
North Dakota @ Kansas City +0.2 143.1 49% 81–79 ✗
UC San Diego @ UC Riverside -9.6 144.9 17% 69–66 ✓
Weber State @ Northern Colorado +4.8 158.5 73% 76–71 ✗
Idaho State @ Northern Arizona -4.3 135.8 35% 81–79 ✓
Southern Utah @ California Baptist +14.1 144.4 89% 55–58 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ New Mexico State +2.0 141.0 60% 59–55 ✗
Mississippi State @ Kentucky +10.3 149.6 84% 68–92 ✓
UT Martin @ Southern Indiana -7.4 133.1 21% 73–56 ✓
Utah State @ Boise State -2.0 145.1 43% 93–68 ✓
Wyoming @ Nevada +2.5 143.3 64% 83–92 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Santa Clara +12.4 146.0 87% 72–103 ✓
BYU @ Utah -14.1 157.5 15% 89–84 ✓
Fresno State @ San Diego State +10.4 145.0 85% 52–71 ✓
UC Irvine @ Hawai'i +7.1 134.4 74% 66–67 ✓
Illinois @ Iowa +0.5 139.4 51% 75–69 ✗
Saint Joseph's @ Richmond +10.9 148.6 87% 67–65 ✗
Memphis @ Florida Atlantic +3.4 144.1 70% 78–89 ✓
Cleveland State @ Detroit Mercy +7.9 152.7 80% 84–94 ✓
Canisius @ Iona +10.2 138.4 86% 48–74 ✓
Charlotte @ Rice -2.6 141.8 39% 74–73 ✓
UAB @ East Carolina -10.1 144.4 17% 87–85 ✓
Merrimack @ Saint Peter's +1.2 130.4 56% 63–76 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Sacred Heart -5.4 146.4 26% 70–60 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Green Bay +1.0 142.7 55% 78–80 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Robert Morris +4.6 144.5 69% 79–74 ✗
Siena @ Mount St. Mary's -2.9 133.7 36% 67–50 ✓
Marist @ Rider -14.6 124.5 13% 71–49 ✓
Niagara @ Manhattan +6.2 139.2 75% 70–79 ✓
North Texas @ Wichita State +7.3 132.1 75% 67–78 ✓
Wright State @ Oakland +4.1 152.6 71% 94–84 ✗
IU Indianapolis @ Milwaukee +10.2 157.2 84% 83–95 ✓
Cincinnati @ UCF +6.7 140.8 77% 72–73 ✓
Northwestern @ Rutgers -4.6 140.8 34% 75–77 ✗
Ohio State @ Washington +1.4 146.8 56% 74–81 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.