I'll write on your tombstone, "I thank you for dinner." "Bungle in the Jungle" - Jethro Tull
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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36–24 on winners spread MAE 9.0 60 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Ole Miss @ Georgia +11.8 156.6 87% 97–95 ✗
Illinois State @ Indiana State -8.2 137.8 21% 89–94 ✗
St. Bonaventure @ Saint Joseph's -1.7 146.9 44% 64–68 ✗
La Salle @ Richmond +9.0 142.6 83% 53–74 ✓
Davidson @ George Washington +11.9 146.8 87% 84–79 ✗
East Carolina @ South Florida +17.3 153.1 90% 71–82 ✓
Tulsa @ Charlotte -5.9 150.1 29% 86–74 ✓
Colorado @ Cincinnati +3.5 142.4 65% 68–77 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Charleston Southern +6.0 145.8 74% 86–81 ✗
UNC Asheville @ Presbyterian -2.5 134.8 41% 70–71 ✗
Radford @ Gardner-Webb -9.4 154.6 17% 89–80 ✓
Iona @ Rider -11.1 134.4 16% 68–72 ✗
Pittsburgh @ Georgia Tech -0.8 142.0 49% 89–66 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Quinnipiac +7.2 136.9 79% 74–70 ✗
Colgate @ Loyola Maryland -7.6 145.0 22% 86–80 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Siena +8.6 134.4 81% 86–80 ✗
Niagara @ Canisius +4.5 131.3 68% 59–54 ✗
Manhattan @ Fairfield +6.9 150.0 76% 62–98 ✓
Furman @ Samford -2.2 141.5 41% 77–73 ✓
Southern Miss @ Troy +5.3 148.4 74% 65–91 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Marshall +7.9 142.9 81% 85–83 ✗
Auburn @ Missouri -0.9 155.2 47% 74–84 ✗
Kentucky @ LSU +2.0 151.0 61% 75–74 ✗
Florida International @ Kennesaw State +2.6 160.2 64% 86–89 ✓
Sam Houston @ Jacksonville State -1.8 142.6 42% 77–62 ✓
Lafayette @ Bucknell +2.3 134.9 59% 69–76 ✓
UAB @ Tulane -0.3 143.3 51% 82–69 ✓
Missouri State @ Western Kentucky +3.7 143.7 68% 72–87 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Louisiana Tech -7.6 126.9 22% 58–59 ✗
San Diego State @ Wyoming +2.0 148.3 63% 74–57 ✗
Drake @ Southern Illinois +5.2 142.8 73% 76–73 ✗
Fordham @ Saint Louis +17.5 143.1 90% 56–78 ✓
Rice @ UTSA -4.2 135.5 33% 89–73 ✓
Temple @ Memphis +6.9 142.6 76% 53–55 ✓
UCF @ Kansas State +0.0 159.5 48% 82–73 ✗
South Dakota State @ North Dakota State +5.9 150.1 77% 65–76 ✓
Louisiana @ Texas State +4.8 134.9 67% 54–59 ✓
Illinois @ Northwestern -8.5 143.0 21% 79–68 ✓
UCLA @ Penn State -2.5 145.5 43% 71–60 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Texas -4.7 162.7 27% 64–80 ✗
North Carolina @ Stanford -2.7 138.8 39% 90–95 ✗
Utah @ Texas Tech +15.8 153.8 89% 74–88 ✓
South Carolina @ Arkansas +11.0 153.6 85% 74–108 ✓
Portland @ Pepperdine -0.8 139.9 47% 63–67 ✗
Virginia Tech @ SMU +9.8 156.9 81% 76–77 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Denver +4.2 147.1 67% 87–98 ✓
Nevada @ Utah State +12.2 150.2 86% 62–71 ✓
Pacific @ Santa Clara +13.0 148.1 87% 69–85 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Oregon State -0.7 138.2 47% 70–76 ✗
Arizona State @ Arizona +18.3 158.5 91% 82–89 ✓
Michigan @ Washington -10.6 151.3 17% 82–72 ✓
Duke @ California -9.6 143.8 18% 71–56 ✓
TCU @ BYU +13.5 151.4 87% 70–76 ✓
NJIT @ UMass Lowell +6.2 144.9 78% 73–64 ✗
UMBC @ Bryant -3.0 132.1 39% 74–79 ✗
Mercer @ VMI -12.6 149.3 14% 77–67 ✓
New Mexico State @ Liberty +7.5 141.6 78% 71–73 ✓
Robert Morris @ IU Indianapolis -5.9 156.4 25% 93–96 ✗
Binghamton @ UAlbany +9.4 140.5 83% 53–69 ✓
James Madison @ App State +2.1 134.2 62% 65–80 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.