You just want to be on the side that's winning. "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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17–12 on winners spread MAE 9.8 29 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Washington State @ San Francisco +5.4 142.1 73% 80–85 ✓
Northeastern @ Monmouth +2.3 142.3 63% 68–81 ✓
Stonehill @ Saint Francis -2.4 136.4 37% 61–63 ✗
Vermont @ UAlbany -4.2 140.9 30% 68–75 ✗
Drexel @ Towson +3.2 121.5 63% 58–59 ✓
Iona @ Saint Peter's +0.8 135.1 56% 63–77 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Rider -4.2 132.8 30% 105–85 ✓
Cornell @ Brown +1.4 159.0 54% 89–67 ✗
Columbia @ Yale +10.1 150.9 84% 74–91 ✓
Fairfield @ Siena +3.7 137.8 70% 77–85 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Niagara -2.5 130.5 39% 68–58 ✓
Merrimack @ Marist +10.2 126.4 83% 68–55 ✗
Manhattan @ Quinnipiac +11.5 148.9 87% 92–98 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Mercyhurst -2.0 131.8 38% 61–79 ✗
Pennsylvania @ Harvard +2.1 144.1 62% 63–64 ✓
Wagner @ Fairleigh Dickinson -0.4 139.1 43% 61–68 ✗
New Hampshire @ Maine +0.2 127.0 49% 65–48 ✗
UMBC @ Binghamton -7.4 135.9 23% 78–60 ✓
Bryant @ NJIT +0.3 131.2 53% 55–79 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ VCU +14.3 148.5 88% 72–79 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Alcorn State -3.2 148.0 34% 75–76 ✗
Long Island University @ Le Moyne -0.8 139.4 44% 77–83 ✗
McNeese @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi -3.9 132.2 32% 69–53 ✓
George Washington @ George Mason +3.4 148.0 67% 64–69 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Alabama State -0.4 140.3 48% 73–69 ✓
Princeton @ Dartmouth +3.5 142.4 65% 69–71 ✓
Providence @ Marquette -1.8 159.4 42% 104–105 ✗
East Texas A&M @ Incarnate Word +9.1 136.1 82% 80–58 ✗
Bethune-Cookman @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff +0.5 149.6 54% 87–82 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.