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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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95–29 on winners spread MAE 9.6 124 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Wichita State @ Temple +1.3 150.3 59% 85–91 ✓
Iowa @ Wisconsin +6.3 163.3 76% 85–116 ✓
Stonehill @ Mercyhurst -0.2 132.6 58% 69–76 ✗
Le Moyne @ Long Island University +3.6 139.3 66% 62–78 ✓
Chicago State @ Wagner +6.2 124.5 65% 64–52 ✗
Central Connecticut @ Saint Francis -5.7 139.3 30% 74–59 ✓
Marist @ Iona -1.1 131.8 45% 70–65 ✓
Manhattan @ Siena +3.1 143.4 71% 95–103 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Saint Peter's +3.1 130.6 56% 59–46 ✗
Michigan State @ Ohio State +2.7 146.8 52% 69–62 ✗
Xavier @ Georgetown +0.6 142.0 59% 63–69 ✓
Creighton @ Marquette +12.1 150.0 87% 71–79 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Saint Louis +0.6 147.2 48% 57–73 ✓
Nevada @ New Mexico +4.8 143.6 76% 81–82 ✓
Florida @ Kentucky +2.9 164.9 72% 100–106 ✓
Georgia @ Ole Miss +4.0 139.9 71% 51–63 ✓
Oklahoma State @ West Virginia +10.9 140.9 84% 50–69 ✓
Boston College @ Georgia Tech +5.5 146.8 71% 64–85 ✓
NC State @ Wake Forest +3.2 134.3 68% 59–77 ✓
North Carolina @ Notre Dame -3.4 155.3 29% 74–73 ✓
Richmond @ Massachusetts +5.5 148.2 70% 72–64 ✗
Dayton @ George Washington -5.2 140.5 34% 62–82 ✗
DePaul @ Villanova +10.5 148.0 83% 56–100 ✓
William & Mary @ Stony Brook -3.2 153.9 42% 83–76 ✓
Hofstra @ Northeastern +3.9 133.0 66% 55–37 ✗
Toledo @ Western Michigan +0.1 146.9 54% 76–70 ✗
Arkansas @ Tennessee +13.7 135.3 85% 52–76 ✓
Vermont @ New Hampshire -6.1 131.0 25% 60–40 ✓
Texas State @ App State +0.6 132.0 56% 61–72 ✓
Milwaukee @ Detroit Mercy -6.3 142.3 22% 64–56 ✓
Green Bay @ Northern Kentucky +9.5 144.9 86% 60–78 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Queens University -3.0 143.1 38% 83–92 ✗
Chattanooga @ The Citadel -9.8 142.9 18% 81–68 ✓
Buffalo @ Miami (OH) +11.4 148.9 88% 79–93 ✓
Baylor @ Iowa State +5.5 149.9 70% 55–74 ✓
BYU @ Houston +10.1 131.2 77% 55–86 ✓
UCLA @ Nebraska +0.6 132.8 66% 58–66 ✓
South Carolina @ Mississippi State +11.7 142.1 85% 50–85 ✓
High Point @ UNC Asheville +0.2 148.9 53% 99–103 ✓
Presbyterian @ Gardner-Webb +3.3 144.2 67% 61–63 ✓
Charlotte @ Rice +5.4 138.8 75% 55–68 ✓
Tulsa @ UAB +11.4 157.4 81% 51–83 ✓
Miami @ Virginia Tech +2.5 143.8 65% 85–86 ✓
VCU @ Loyola Chicago -2.6 138.7 40% 84–65 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Fordham -8.1 137.3 25% 86–66 ✓
Duquesne @ Davidson +5.8 132.3 72% 71–77 ✓
George Mason @ Rhode Island +0.6 141.9 65% 59–62 ✓
Indiana State @ Evansville -3.4 149.7 29% 66–62 ✓
Stetson @ West Georgia +4.8 145.4 64% 78–62 ✗
Bellarmine @ Central Arkansas +5.8 146.5 75% 65–71 ✓
Maine @ Bryant +2.8 147.0 61% 55–81 ✓
UMBC @ Binghamton +0.9 149.2 57% 82–87 ✓
Butler @ St. John's +10.8 146.4 85% 62–70 ✓
UL Monroe @ Coastal Carolina +5.4 134.9 70% 51–70 ✓
Towson @ Charleston +7.6 139.3 78% 69–77 ✓
Drexel @ North Carolina A&T -5.3 143.3 33% 68–59 ✓
Lipscomb @ North Florida -5.3 155.4 29% 96–64 ✓
St. Thomas @ North Dakota -6.2 158.1 28% 88–80 ✓
Omaha @ North Dakota State +10.6 149.8 81% 85–80 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Eastern Michigan +7.3 145.9 81% 71–75 ✓
Ball State @ Kent State +9.7 134.5 72% 75–67 ✗
Western Kentucky @ Florida International -4.6 149.8 40% 66–85 ✗
Duke @ SMU -4.1 143.7 29% 89–62 ✓
Arizona @ Cincinnati +1.7 139.2 41% 72–67 ✗
Jackson State @ Alcorn State +0.8 135.7 40% 72–69 ✗
South Alabama @ Georgia Southern -5.4 139.0 31% 76–47 ✓
Robert Morris @ Oakland +5.4 140.3 74% 79–71 ✗
IU Indianapolis @ Cleveland State +9.0 139.5 81% 61–67 ✓
Austin Peay @ Jacksonville +4.8 133.4 70% 44–68 ✓
Samford @ Western Carolina -14.0 157.2 14% 88–69 ✓
McNeese @ East Texas A&M -14.9 133.0 11% 75–56 ✓
Missouri @ Auburn +18.5 155.1 88% 68–84 ✓
Kansas State @ TCU +5.4 144.6 78% 62–63 ✓
Louisville @ Virginia -3.7 129.7 33% 70–50 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Norfolk State +15.7 138.5 89% 59–81 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Valparaiso -3.8 145.0 36% 73–80 ✗
San Diego State @ Boise State +3.0 135.3 64% 76–68 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Alabama State +22.1 140.7 90% 55–84 ✓
UMass Lowell @ UAlbany +0.2 156.8 43% 73–69 ✗
Weber State @ Northern Arizona +1.7 142.7 57% 77–80 ✓
Portland State @ Sacramento State -4.0 134.4 34% 53–56 ✗
Idaho State @ Northern Colorado +3.5 145.7 72% 92–93 ✓
Southern Miss @ Old Dominion +0.1 140.7 43% 71–74 ✓
Troy @ Marshall -2.3 135.9 41% 58–57 ✓
Arkansas State @ James Madison +0.9 145.8 53% 62–67 ✓
Monmouth @ Delaware +3.4 153.1 62% 64–84 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Utah Valley +7.9 133.6 80% 53–64 ✓
Furman @ UNC Greensboro +1.3 136.3 55% 67–84 ✓
Wofford @ East Tennessee State +5.1 139.4 70% 81–78 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ New Mexico State -3.0 138.5 44% 48–78 ✗
Morehead State @ Tennessee Tech +1.8 140.2 55% 55–74 ✓
Winthrop @ Radford +1.8 147.9 60% 67–87 ✓
South Carolina State @ Morgan State -6.7 145.7 24% 86–72 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Coppin State -6.7 131.9 30% 61–63 ✗
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ SE Louisiana -1.2 137.9 39% 80–71 ✓
Mercer @ VMI -0.3 153.8 45% 70–67 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ UT Martin +3.0 141.2 70% 63–66 ✓
Little Rock @ Tennessee State -2.0 141.3 41% 86–95 ✗
Lindenwood @ SIU Edwardsville +7.9 139.2 77% 47–58 ✓
Western Illinois @ Eastern Illinois +2.2 138.0 46% 75–67 ✗
Nicholls @ Northwestern State +2.2 136.6 60% 66–68 ✓
Vanderbilt @ LSU +3.1 154.8 62% 80–72 ✗
UIC @ Belmont +2.8 155.6 68% 87–92 ✓
Wyoming @ Air Force -3.9 129.5 27% 70–65 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Alabama A&M +6.4 156.7 83% 79–89 ✓
Montana @ Idaho +0.1 147.9 52% 73–71 ✗
Montana State @ Eastern Washington +0.0 143.4 53% 63–68 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Kennesaw State -0.9 151.4 61% 71–83 ✗
Grambling @ Prairie View A&M +3.1 144.0 66% 55–73 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ North Alabama +3.1 149.5 68% 67–88 ✓
Oklahoma @ Alabama +10.4 163.0 78% 79–107 ✓
Colorado @ Arizona State +4.5 141.7 70% 61–81 ✓
UTSA @ Tulane +5.7 152.2 73% 63–92 ✓
Syracuse @ Florida State +10.0 155.7 83% 74–90 ✓
San José State @ UNLV +10.0 140.3 84% 73–79 ✓
Southern @ Texas Southern -2.1 140.1 41% 67–58 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ LSU New Orleans -6.4 157.1 29% 76–64 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Stephen F. Austin +4.0 130.8 54% 55–49 ✗
UC Davis @ Cal State Northridge +9.3 142.5 85% 61–73 ✓
San Diego @ Oregon State +14.6 141.0 88% 54–81 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Kansas City +9.1 140.0 82% 67–90 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Liberty +9.7 140.4 80% 63–73 ✓
Stanford @ Pittsburgh +12.7 149.4 87% 68–83 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Florida A&M -4.1 144.6 33% 62–55 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.