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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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33–21 on winners spread MAE 10.2 54 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Wagner @ Stonehill	+2.9	125.3	59%	61–73	✓
Saint Francis @ Mercyhurst	+2.6	134.8	67%	58–62	✓
Le Moyne @ Fairleigh Dickinson	+5.2	154.1	75%	74–78	✓
Central Connecticut @ Long Island University	-3.6	127.5	32%	63–50	✓
UMass Lowell @ NJIT	-8.7	141.6	22%	62–83	✗
Bryant @ UMBC	-3.8	165.2	27%	92–86	✓
Georgia State @ Marshall	+9.2	152.0	84%	85–81	✗
Georgia Southern @ Troy	+11.8	142.8	87%	74–81	✓
Coastal Carolina @ James Madison	+14.0	136.9	88%	64–73	✓
IU Indianapolis @ Robert Morris	+7.8	146.7	83%	53–106	✓
Northern Kentucky @ Detroit Mercy	-3.6	134.3	37%	57–68	✗
Green Bay @ Oakland	+11.8	136.5	87%	54–68	✓
UNC Wilmington @ North Carolina A&T	-10.5	150.9	17%	83–59	✓
William & Mary @ Campbell	+1.4	150.7	56%	55–96	✓
Drexel @ Monmouth	-2.1	133.8	47%	97–104	✗
Hofstra @ Elon	+2.6	134.9	61%	74–63	✗
Northeastern @ Hampton	-0.1	138.5	50%	78–69	✓
Florida International @ Jacksonville State	+9.0	135.8	80%	67–71	✓
New Mexico State @ Middle Tennessee	+4.2	139.6	72%	61–57	✗
Tennessee Tech @ Morehead State	+5.1	139.5	75%	72–64	✗
UL Monroe @ South Alabama	+13.4	131.7	82%	62–58	✗
Louisiana @ Texas State	+9.8	143.1	82%	70–61	✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Lipscomb	+12.0	150.1	86%	80–71	✗
Bellarmine @ Austin Peay	+9.2	142.4	86%	77–86	✓
Southern Utah @ UT Arlington	+7.7	142.5	80%	68–70	✓
Utah Tech @ Tarleton State	+1.5	131.2	67%	54–61	✓
South Dakota State @ North Dakota State	+1.6	152.0	48%	72–62	✗
UTEP @ Western Kentucky	+3.0	146.8	66%	74–78	✓
Liberty @ Kennesaw State	-3.0	143.6	42%	76–68	✓
Tennessee State @ Little Rock	+5.7	142.2	68%	72–70	✗
Illinois @ Nebraska	-5.0	155.5	44%	74–80	✗
UT Martin @ Southeast Missouri State	+2.7	146.2	62%	79–90	✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Lindenwood	-3.8	138.7	33%	63–65	✗
Eastern Illinois @ Western Illinois	+0.8	128.1	43%	71–59	✗
Memphis @ Tulane	-4.8	147.3	31%	68–56	✓
Sacramento State @ Montana State	+9.7	132.9	84%	58–70	✓
Idaho @ Weber State	+1.7	143.6	59%	82–74	✗
Portland State @ Montana	+1.2	143.0	58%	78–92	✓
Eastern Washington @ Idaho State	+4.3	137.3	71%	70–78	✓
Cleveland State @ Purdue Fort Wayne	+4.6	145.6	55%	68–58	✗
Kansas City @ Denver	-4.0	133.2	33%	68–69	✗
Cal Poly @ Cal State Bakersfield	+5.2	155.3	73%	90–81	✗
UC Davis @ UC Riverside	+6.1	138.6	75%	58–60	✓
Cal State Northridge @ UC Santa Barbara	+0.0	144.2	46%	78–71	✗
UC Irvine @ Long Beach State	-13.5	138.5	17%	80–75	✓
Pepperdine @ San Diego	-2.3	142.8	34%	98–90	✓
Portland @ Loyola Marymount	+9.8	146.8	87%	63–88	✓
Washington State @ Pacific	-10.8	148.8	19%	68–70	✗
Abilene Christian @ California Baptist	+6.6	134.4	75%	60–83	✓
Oregon @ UCLA	+3.7	141.1	74%	52–78	✓
Seattle U @ Grand Canyon	+8.7	140.9	85%	74–83	✓
UC San Diego @ Hawai'i	-7.9	139.4	24%	74–63	✓
Yale @ Princeton	-1.8	145.8	34%	77–70	✓
Butler @ Georgetown	+1.4	136.8	65%	70–73	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.