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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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37–16 on winners spread MAE 9.7 53 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Colorado @ Iowa State	+15.9	149.9	89%	67–97	✓
Radford @ Charleston Southern	+4.4	161.2	65%	84–75	✗
Longwood @ South Carolina Upstate	+0.2	144.7	49%	60–65	✓
New Haven @ Mercyhurst	+3.9	122.9	55%	51–70	✓
Le Moyne @ Long Island University	+5.7	142.1	74%	61–83	✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Stonehill	+0.9	132.9	51%	57–58	✓
UMBC @ Vermont	+5.1	138.5	70%	55–64	✓
Stony Brook @ Campbell	+4.0	147.5	75%	81–69	✗
William & Mary @ Elon	+1.1	161.2	63%	76–79	✓
Hampton @ Drexel	+4.0	131.8	62%	51–58	✓
North Carolina A&T @ Monmouth	+6.4	141.0	80%	81–83	✓
Charleston @ Hofstra	+4.9	147.3	70%	66–64	✗
VMI @ The Citadel	+2.7	144.3	58%	56–80	✓
UNC Greensboro @ Mercer	+10.5	154.4	86%	77–95	✓
Western Carolina @ East Tennessee State	+11.6	144.6	87%	90–88	✗
James Madison @ Troy	+11.2	154.1	85%	73–64	✗
Stetson @ North Florida	+2.0	157.1	62%	84–77	✗
North Alabama @ Florida Gulf Coast	+8.5	146.6	81%	64–72	✓
Lipscomb @ Jacksonville	-4.9	142.4	26%	65–70	✗
Liberty @ Middle Tennessee	-0.0	140.8	50%	81–65	✓
Central Connecticut @ Wagner	-0.2	139.6	48%	62–55	✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Morehead State	+0.1	133.1	49%	65–67	✓
Florida Atlantic @ Memphis	+2.5	147.3	63%	65–92	✓
Penn State @ Northwestern	+8.4	143.1	76%	73–94	✓
Oral Roberts @ South Dakota	+5.1	151.9	74%	69–77	✓
North Dakota @ St. Thomas	+12.8	150.7	87%	81–80	✗
Georgia State @ Louisiana	-2.5	129.9	34%	72–82	✗
Coastal Carolina @ South Alabama	+4.8	143.2	69%	48–53	✓
App State @ Southern Miss	+0.3	134.3	53%	70–63	✗
Eastern Washington @ Northern Arizona	-1.5	143.9	45%	86–92	✗
Southern Utah @ UT Arlington	+10.5	143.2	86%	61–80	✓
Utah Valley @ Tarleton State	-3.2	150.9	42%	83–55	✓
Utah Tech @ Abilene Christian	+1.7	140.5	63%	76–70	✗
Lindenwood @ Southern Indiana	-2.5	147.2	42%	73–60	✓
UT Martin @ Eastern Illinois	-4.3	126.9	32%	76–68	✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Western Illinois	-8.1	136.0	22%	78–74	✓
Little Rock @ Tennessee State	+6.4	147.5	75%	63–70	✓
Washington @ Illinois	+13.0	150.9	87%	66–75	✓
Presbyterian @ High Point	+17.2	149.6	89%	81–84	✓
UNC Wilmington @ Towson	-1.1	130.4	50%	82–73	✓
Idaho @ Northern Colorado	+2.3	149.6	64%	83–91	✓
Cal Poly @ Cal State Bakersfield	+0.2	155.7	62%	104–79	✗
Long Beach State @ UC Riverside	+1.2	143.6	58%	61–71	✓
UC Davis @ Cal State Northridge	+2.2	154.6	60%	78–94	✓
UC Santa Barbara @ UC San Diego	+6.5	143.5	79%	62–48	✗
Montana State @ Sacramento State	-6.8	151.5	31%	80–83	✗
Montana @ Portland State	+3.3	142.9	65%	64–60	✗
Hawai'i @ UC Irvine	+2.5	136.8	57%	76–87	✓
Georgia Southern @ UL Monroe	-9.9	157.6	17%	79–76	✓
Princeton @ Cornell	+4.8	156.6	63%	64–87	✓
Kent State @ Akron	+11.4	164.0	84%	52–69	✓
IU Indianapolis @ Youngstown State	+9.3	158.3	83%	76–85	✓
Siena @ Niagara	-10.6	126.0	15%	82–79	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.