Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | NOLA +600 SFA -700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NOLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +10 | 168 | Lost |
| Massey | SFA -7.2 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.2 (+13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -7.2 (-2.8) | 153.2 (+14.8) | 24% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -6.4 (-3.6) | 151.2 (+16.8) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -7.6 (-2.4) | 152.9 (+15.1) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -7.1 (-2.9) | 156.2 (+11.8) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 24, 2026 | NOLA 77 – 73 SFA |
| Jan 17, 2026 | SFA 84 – 79 NOLA |
| Feb 4, 2025 | SFA 88 – 85 NOLA |
| Dec 30, 2023 | SFA 80 – 51 NOLA |
| Jan 2, 2021 | SFA 78 – 67 NOLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NOLA | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-15 | 16-5 |
| Conference | 8-7 | 12-3 |
| Home | 6-3 | 10-1 |
| Away | 2-10 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -9.8 (#307) | -0.0 (#165) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.11 (#337) | 0.04 (#170) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.88 (#336) | -0.29 (#192) |
| RPI | 0.358 (#343) | 0.502 (#165) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NOLA | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 51.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 55.9% |
| TOV% | 22.4% | 24.0% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 37.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 29.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 24.4% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 31.6% |
Game Analysis
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