Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | NOLA +290 SFA -380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NOLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +3 | 173 | Lost |
| Massey | SFA -3.1 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (+36.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -2.1 (-0.9) | 135.9 (+37.1) | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -4.0 (+1.0) | 134.8 (+38.2) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -2.3 (-0.7) | 134.4 (+38.6) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -2.2 (-0.8) | 135.5 (+37.5) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 24, 2026 | NOLA 77 – 73 SFA |
| Jan 17, 2026 | SFA 84 – 79 NOLA |
| Dec 30, 2023 | SFA 80 – 51 NOLA |
| Feb 15, 2021 | SFA 89 – 79 NOLA |
| Jan 2, 2021 | SFA 78 – 67 NOLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NOLA | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-27 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 7-13 |
| Home | 0-11 | 8-8 |
| Away | 3-15 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L13 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.5 | 69.4 |
| Massey | -12.5 (#344) | -6.1 (#261) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.83 (#328) | -1.56 (#310) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.34 (#324) | -1.69 (#294) |
| RPI | 0.437 (#291) | 0.433 (#294) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NOLA | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 26.4% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 24.8% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 36.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 62.9% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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