Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | NOLA +220 SFA -270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NOLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +5 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | SFA -7.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.3 (+12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -7.3 (+2.3) | 141.7 (+21.3) | 22% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -6.9 (+1.9) | 143.1 (+19.9) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -7.4 (+2.4) | 141.5 (+21.5) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -7.0 (+2.0) | 141.8 (+21.2) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 24, 2026 | NOLA 77 – 73 SFA |
| Feb 4, 2025 | SFA 88 – 85 NOLA |
| Dec 30, 2023 | SFA 80 – 51 NOLA |
| Feb 15, 2021 | SFA 89 – 79 NOLA |
| Jan 2, 2021 | SFA 78 – 67 NOLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NOLA | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 28-6 |
| Conference | 12-10 | 20-2 |
| Home | 5-6 | 15-1 |
| Away | 9-11 | 12-4 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#231) | 6.9 (#91) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#227) | 1.17 (#86) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.91 (#228) | 1.65 (#83) |
| RPI | 0.471 (#228) | 0.535 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NOLA | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 35.3% |
| FT Rate | 30.9% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 64.5% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.6% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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