Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | SFA -1200 NOLA +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +29 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -13.3 (+15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.9 (-21.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -10.7 (+18.3) | 149.6 (-18.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -14.5 (+14.5) | 146.1 (-15.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -11.1 (+17.9) | 147.0 (-16.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -10.7 (+18.3) | 146.1 (-15.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 24, 2026 | NOLA 77 – 73 SFA |
| Jan 17, 2026 | SFA 84 – 79 NOLA |
| Feb 4, 2025 | SFA 88 – 85 NOLA |
| Feb 15, 2021 | SFA 89 – 79 NOLA |
| Jan 2, 2021 | SFA 78 – 67 NOLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | NOLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 4-14 |
| Home | 10-5 | 7-6 |
| Away | 5-8 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 81.6 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#156) | -8.1 (#305) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.00 (#180) | -1.56 (#297) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#139) | -1.78 (#286) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#197) | 0.440 (#278) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | NOLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.62 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 43.4% |
| TOV% | 24.2% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.0% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.4% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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