Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | SFA -600 NOLA +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +11 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -6.6 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.5 (+9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -3.2 (+7.8) | 137.0 (+8.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -6.8 (+4.2) | 139.8 (+5.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -2.7 (+8.3) | 137.2 (+7.8) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -2.2 (+8.8) | 137.0 (+8.0) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 24, 2026 | NOLA 77 – 73 SFA |
| Jan 17, 2026 | SFA 84 – 79 NOLA |
| Feb 4, 2025 | SFA 88 – 85 NOLA |
| Dec 30, 2023 | SFA 80 – 51 NOLA |
| Feb 15, 2021 | SFA 89 – 79 NOLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | NOLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-5 | 10-15 |
| Conference | 12-3 | 8-7 |
| Home | 10-1 | 6-3 |
| Away | 6-4 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 77.2 |
| Massey | -8.3 (#284) | -11.3 (#305) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.41 (#304) | -2.79 (#315) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.89 (#326) | -4.34 (#317) |
| RPI | 0.361 (#312) | 0.387 (#296) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | NOLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 28.1% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 28.0 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.46 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 29.9% | 25.5% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 35.0% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 61.9% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 29.0% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 80.8% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 44.0% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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