Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | MTSU -258 NMSU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +1 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | MTSU -4.2 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (+23.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -4.0 (-3.0) | 147.1 (+23.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -3.5 (-2.5) | 144.9 (+26.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -3.9 (-2.9) | 144.6 (+26.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -3.7 (-2.7) | 145.6 (+25.4) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2026 | MTSU 59 – 55 NMSU |
| Feb 28, 2025 | MTSU 71 – 66 NMSU |
| Jan 31, 2025 | NMSU 61 – 57 MTSU |
| Feb 16, 2024 | MTSU 76 – 69 NMSU |
| Jan 21, 2024 | NMSU 73 – 62 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 8-12 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-5 |
| Away | 5-8 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 73.8 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#155) | -0.7 (#173) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#185) | -0.50 (#224) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#177) | -0.31 (#189) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#128) | 0.489 (#214) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 32.3% |
Game Analysis
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