Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | MTSU -175 NMSU +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +7 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | MTSU -1.5 (+5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.0 (+17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -0.6 (+6.4) | 134.8 (+10.2) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -1.5 (+5.5) | 134.1 (+10.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -0.2 (+7.2) | 133.3 (+11.7) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -0.1 (+6.9) | 134.3 (+10.7) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MTSU 86 – 85 NMSU |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MTSU 59 – 55 NMSU |
| Feb 28, 2025 | MTSU 71 – 66 NMSU |
| Jan 31, 2025 | NMSU 61 – 57 MTSU |
| Jan 21, 2024 | NMSU 73 – 62 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 7-9 |
| Home | 11-6 | 12-3 |
| Away | 1-10 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.4 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#300) | -5.9 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#273) | -0.47 (#216) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#264) | -0.58 (#221) |
| RPI | 0.440 (#286) | 0.466 (#240) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 28.3% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.60 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 33.6% |
Game Analysis
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