Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | NMSU -115 MTSU -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +5 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | NMSU -1.4 (-6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.9 (-0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -1.3 (-6.3) | 138.0 (-1.0) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NMSU -0.6 (-5.6) | 138.2 (-1.2) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -1.1 (-6.1) | 136.5 (+0.5) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -1.2 (-6.2) | 137.6 (-0.6) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MTSU 86 – 85 NMSU |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MTSU 59 – 55 NMSU |
| Jan 31, 2025 | NMSU 61 – 57 MTSU |
| Feb 16, 2024 | MTSU 76 – 69 NMSU |
| Jan 21, 2024 | NMSU 73 – 62 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 9-6 | 11-5 |
| Away | 8-6 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 73.8 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#143) | 2.9 (#114) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#149) | 1.07 (#85) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#131) | 0.95 (#105) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#169) | 0.571 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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