Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | NMSU -225 MTSU +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +11 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | NMSU -6.4 (+4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.3 (+10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -3.6 (+7.4) | 128.8 (+6.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NMSU -3.7 (+7.3) | 127.8 (+7.2) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -3.8 (+7.2) | 127.3 (+7.7) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -4.3 (+6.7) | 125.7 (+9.3) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MTSU 86 – 85 NMSU |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MTSU 59 – 55 NMSU |
| Feb 28, 2025 | MTSU 71 – 66 NMSU |
| Jan 31, 2025 | NMSU 61 – 57 MTSU |
| Feb 16, 2024 | MTSU 76 – 69 NMSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 7-9 |
| Home | 12-3 | 11-6 |
| Away | 1-13 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.9 | 64.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#275) | -8.5 (#306) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#251) | -1.39 (#302) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.90 (#243) | -1.52 (#293) |
| RPI | 0.462 (#247) | 0.416 (#311) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 25.9% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 44.5% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 38.9% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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