Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | GCU -600 UTA +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +7 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -14.9 (-7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.2 (-12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -12.1 (-5.1) | 151.3 (-6.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -12.9 (-5.9) | 148.5 (-3.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -13.1 (-6.1) | 150.8 (-5.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -12.3 (-5.3) | 151.3 (-6.3) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2025 | GCU 98 – 75 UTA |
| Feb 28, 2025 | GCU 85 – 71 UTA |
| Feb 15, 2025 | GCU 82 – 75 UTA |
| Mar 17, 2024 | GCU 89 – 74 UTA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | GCU 67 – 61 UTA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-5 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 13-7 |
| Home | 16-0 | 12-3 |
| Away | 8-3 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 74.7 |
| Massey | 7.5 (#62) | -1.5 (#209) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.05 (#45) | -0.79 (#250) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.19 (#39) | -1.07 (#250) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#80) | 0.465 (#230) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 38.6% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 38.1% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 11.9% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 77.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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