Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | UTA +280 GCU -360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +7 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | GCU -5.3 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -3.9 (-3.1) | 148.9 (+8.1) | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -4.1 (-2.9) | 149.1 (+7.9) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -4.7 (-2.3) | 151.3 (+5.7) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -4.6 (-2.4) | 152.0 (+5.0) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2025 | GCU 98 – 75 UTA |
| Feb 28, 2025 | GCU 85 – 71 UTA |
| Mar 17, 2024 | GCU 89 – 74 UTA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | GCU 67 – 61 UTA |
| Dec 3, 2023 | GCU 76 – 69 UTA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTA | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 13-3 |
| Home | 9-4 | 16-1 |
| Away | 3-11 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.7 | 70.0 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#218) | 5.3 (#94) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#234) | 0.97 (#94) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#227) | 0.93 (#103) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#241) | 0.538 (#107) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTA | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 33.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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