Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | GCU -400 UTA +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +23 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -8.6 (+14.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.7 (+21.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -8.5 (+14.5) | 145.9 (+27.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -7.5 (+15.5) | 147.2 (+25.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -7.5 (+15.5) | 146.4 (+26.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -8.2 (+14.8) | 145.1 (+27.9) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2025 | GCU 85 – 71 UTA |
| Feb 15, 2025 | GCU 82 – 75 UTA |
| Mar 17, 2024 | GCU 89 – 74 UTA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | GCU 67 – 61 UTA |
| Dec 3, 2023 | GCU 76 – 69 UTA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 6-10 |
| Home | 16-1 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-4 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.6 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.0 | 75.7 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#96) | -3.7 (#227) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#93) | -0.91 (#250) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#100) | -1.01 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#91) | 0.454 (#273) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 31.5% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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