Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | GCU -275 UTA +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +15 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -6.6 (+8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (+13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -5.8 (+9.2) | 146.4 (+16.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -6.0 (+9.0) | 146.4 (+16.6) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -5.8 (+9.2) | 144.6 (+18.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -6.0 (+9.0) | 146.0 (+17.0) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2025 | GCU 98 – 75 UTA |
| Feb 28, 2025 | GCU 85 – 71 UTA |
| Feb 15, 2025 | GCU 82 – 75 UTA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | GCU 67 – 61 UTA |
| Dec 3, 2023 | GCU 76 – 69 UTA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-5 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 13-7 |
| Home | 16-0 | 12-3 |
| Away | 8-3 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 74.7 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#54) | 3.0 (#123) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.14 (#31) | 0.56 (#123) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.51 (#33) | 0.89 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.602 (#17) | 0.534 (#108) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 33.2% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 30.2% |
Game Analysis
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